NFL MVP Watch: Why Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes is the early frontrunner
Go ahead, put another chip on the shoulder of Patrick Mahomes as the Kansas City Chiefs look to win the Super Bowl for an unprecedented third straight time.
Mahomes has three Super Bowl MVPs to his credit, but only two league MVP awards in the regular season.
Clearly the best player in the league over the past handful of years, Mahomes hasn’t won the award nearly as much as you would imagine. He’s sort of like the NFL‘s LeBron James, who has won just four MVP awards in 21 NBA seasons. Does that make any sense?
Like James, Mahomes should have more MVP hardware on his mantle.
During the Super Bowl era, Peyton Manning leads the NFL with five league MVPs. He won two titles, including one late in his career with the Denver Broncos, a team led by a dominant defense. Aaron Rodgers has four league MVP awards and one Super Bowl victory. Tom Brady has three MVPs and seven Super Bowl wins.
After leading the Chiefs to an impressive victory over the Baltimore Ravens in the season opener, Mahomes tops our opening list of five players to watch in this year’s MVP race.
1. Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs
Current MVP Odds: +400 (bet $10 to win $50 total)
Mahomes ranks second in the NFL in yards per attempt (10.4), third in the NFL in passing yards (281) and sixth in passer rating (101.9) through the first week of the season.
The addition of speedy receiver Xavier Worthy, Kansas City’s first-round pick, has already paid dividends. The Texas product had three touches for 86 scrimmage yards and two scores in his NFL debut.
On Sunday, against Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals, Mahomes will make his 98th career NFL start. He has won 75 of his first 97 career starts and can tie Brady (76) and Roger Staubach (76) for the most wins by a quarterback in his first 100 career regular season starts.
2. Josh Allen, Bills
Current MVP Odds: +500 (bet $10 to win $60 total)
In Week 1, Allen appeared unaffected by losing his top target, Stefon Diggs, to the Houston Texans in the offseason. Allen completed passes to nine different pass-catchers, threw for 232 yards and ran for 41 yards and two touchdowns in a comeback win over the Arizona Cardinals.
Allen suffered an injury to his left hand on the second TD run that’s worth monitoring. If he stays healthy, he appears ready to put up another monster season on the stat sheet. But will that lead to an elusive Super Bowl appearance for the Bills?
Allen faces Miami in Week 2. He’s 11-2 in his career against the Dolphins.
3. Baker Mayfield, Buccaneers
Current MVP Odds: +8000 (bet $10 to win $810 total)
A change in offensive coordinators from Dave Canales, the new head coach of the Carolina Panthers, to Liam Coen could not keep Mayfield from thriving.
Mayfield had the best game statistically of any quarterback in Week 1, completing 80% of his passes for 289 yards, with four touchdowns — two to Mike Evans — and no interceptions for a league-leading 146.4 passer rating. He added 21 rushing yards.
4. Lamar Jackson, Ravens
Current MVP Odds: +1600 (bet $10 to win $170 total)
If Baltimore tight end Isaiah Likely gets his toe in bounds and the Ravens find a way to execute on a two-point conversion to beat the Chiefs, perhaps we’re having a different conversation this week.
Instead, the reigning league MVP is 1-5 against Mahomes. Jackson still filled up the stat sheet against Kansas City, throwing for 278 yards and two touchdowns, while running for another 122 yards. Jackson and the Ravens get a chance to redeem themselves against the Las Vegas Raiders this weekend.
5. Saquon Barkley, Eagles
Current MVP Odds: +10000 (bet $10 to win $1,010 total)
The former New York Giants running back has a chance to duplicate the impact Christian McCaffrey — the reigning Offensive Player of the year — had with the San Francisco 49ers last season.
Barkley appeared energized by the change of scenery in Week 1, finishing with 132 scrimmage yards and three touchdowns. With the Eagles hosting the Atlanta Falcons this week, Barkley has a chance to continue to pad his stats.
According to Next Gen Stats, of Barkley’s 24 carries in Week 1, 16 came against a light box for 92 yards, more than he had in any game with the Giants last season. Barkley had 66.7% of his runs against light boxes in his first game with Philadelphia, compared to 47.4% throughout last season with the Giants.
Honorable mention: C.J. Stroud, Brock Purdy, Tyreek Hill, Tua Tagovailoa, Matthew Stafford
Eric D. Williams has reported on the NFL for more than a decade, covering the Los Angeles Rams for Sports Illustrated, the Los Angeles Chargers for ESPN and the Seattle Seahawks for the Tacoma News Tribune. Follow him on Twitter at @eric_d_williams.
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