NFL Stock Watch: Tua thrives without Tyreek; Bills look like contenders… again
The NFL wild card races are tight after 15 weeks of football. After Sunday, only six of 32 teams have been eliminated from playoff contention. There are four NFC teams sitting at 7-7, while the AFC has four teams at 8-6 and another two at 7-7. It feels wide open with plenty of room for movement over the final three weeks of the season.
With that being said, here is my stock up and down report for Week 15.
STOCK UP
The Miami Dolphins quarterback had the game he needed without his superstar wide receiver Tyreek Hill in the lineup. Fair or unfair, people equate the success of the Dolphins offense and their quarterback to Hill, the all-world wideout who’s on pace to break the single-season NFL receiving yards record. When Hill was limited in the Dolphins during last Monday’s loss to the Tennessee Titans, we all witnessed on national TV the Dolphins’ offensive struggle without Hill. Smart football people began to question if Tua could operate without Hill, and while it’s a small sample size, he crushed it Sunday without his best weapon. Tua was an efficient 21 of 24 for 224 yards, including a long TD pass of 60 yards to Jaylen Waddle.
I do not believe Tua or the Dolphins have confidence issues on offense, but if they had struggled against the New York Jets, that would have depressed the offense heading into a monster back-to-back games against the Dallas Cowboys and Baltimore Ravens. Sunday was an excellent day for the Fins.
Two weeks ago, the Bills were 50/1 to win the Super Bowl. They beat the Kansas City Chiefs and went directly to 14/1 before kickoff Sunday against the Cowboys. After the Bills dominated Dallas in every phase of the game, I’d have to imagine the Bills move under 10/1. The Bills, who are only 8-6 and depending on tiebreakers, might not even be a wild card team as I type this, but they are absolutely a favorite to win the AFC. Just think about it this way: If you’re a fan of an AFC team in the playoffs, do you want to play the Bills? Nope. When Josh Allen is on, he’s one of the best in the game. Now, the Bills have found a rushing attack, which makes their offense even more dynamic. James Cook had 25 carries for 179 yards plus two catches for 42 yards with two total touchdowns against the Cowboys. Lastly, the Bills defense has played much better the past two weeks after struggling with some injuries in previous weeks. They are a legit playoff contender as we head into the end of December.
Baker Mayfield & the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Buccaneers have won three in a row to even their record at 7-7, tied with the New Orleans Saints at the top of the NFC South. The Bucs aren’t particularly good at one thing, they entered the game Sunday, just below average in offensive and defensive DVOA. What they do well is protect the football with only 14 turnovers this season, while quarterback Baker Mayfield is able to navigate a game plan to success. On Sunday, he threw for 381 yards and four touchdowns against the Packers. Bucs wide receiver Mike Evans continued his streak of 1,000-yard seasons once again this year. Running back Rachaad White is nearing 1,000 yards and the defense continues to have enough playmakers at all levels. The Bucs have the Jaguars, Saints and Panthers to finish out the regularseason. If they beat the Saints, they will win the NFC South.
STOCK DOWN
It goes without much explanation that a coach is often only as good as their quarterback. There are periods of time when coaches can overcome subpar quarterback play but it eventually comes to an end. Mike Tomlin’s Steelers have struggled this season without even a league-average quarterback. The Steelers started 6-3 with a negative point differential after nine games. They had been outgained in each of those contests and their record did not match how they played. Now, after Week 15 the Steelers are 7-7, having lost four of their last five games. The Steelers lost in back-to-back weeks to two-win teams and went ahead 13-0 to the Colts on Saturday before losing 30-13. Embarrassing.
The Steelers are bad at quarterback. That we know. Unfortunately, it’s becoming clear they aren’t that talented in general. T.J. Watt is elite. Who else? It’s a bad roster that’s not playing good football. Couple that with Tomlin coaching too conservative and you have a team not capable of winning many games right now. The Steelers have yet to finish a season under .500 under Tomlin, so maybe they turn it around to finish strong. But it seems unlikely, and while I have admiration for Mike Tomlin and all the winning he’s done, it might be fair to question what happens with this team in the next few years. What is the plan at quarterback? How about offensive coordinator? How can they bring in more impact players on defense? These are fair questions to ask heading into 2024.
The Falcons lost to the one-win Carolina Panthers on Sunday. The Panthers did not score a touchdown and kicked a game-winning field goal as time expired to win by a score of 9-7. It was an embarrassing performance by the Falcons in a must-win game. Yes, the weather was miserable with up to three inches of rain falling in Charlotte. But that’s no excuse to lose this game. Atlanta was close to going ahead by at least four in the fourth quarter when quarterback Desmond Ridder threw an unacceptable interception that negated a larger Falcons lead. Once again, Falcons head coach Arthur Smith will be questioned about their usage of rookie running back Bijon Robinson, who only had seven carries. He wasn’t particularly effective in those touches, but how does someone get into a rhythm with only seven carries?
The Falcons are now 6-8 with wins over zero teams with a winning record. Both the NFC South rivals, whom the Falcons are fighting for the division, won this weekend, so now Atlanta is a game behind both of them. The Falcons are -20 in point differential and entered the weekend 27th in DVOA. They just aren’t a good football team and won’t make the postseason.
The Packers started the season 2-5 with Jordan Love getting his first opportunity as the Packers starting quarterback. There was legitimate cause for concern with how the offense was playing and whether or not Love could be the future quarterback in Green Bay. Then the Packers won four of their next five, including wins over the Los Angeles Rams, Detroit Lions and Kansas City Chiefs. Their star was shooting up and there was talk about playoffs and even a backdoor NFC North division winner. Well, the Packers have come back down to Earth with two straight losses. The Packers lost to the New York Giants on Monday night in a turnover-prone game and then got drilled by the Bucs at home on Sunday. The young Packers offense reverted back to some of the issues we saw early in the season, while the defense allowed the Giants to move the ball late last week and they got torched by the Bucs on Sunday. The Packers are now 11th in the NFC and unlikely to be a wild card team.
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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