NFL Super Wild Card Weekend betting trends: Dolphins in trouble? Cowboys roll?

Updated Jan. 12, 2024 8:50 p.m. ET

FOX Sports Research

It’s here, it’s finally here. The NFL postseason is upon us, with Super Wild Card Weekend beginning on Saturday.

Ten teams will be in action throughout the weekend, with a wild card finale between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Philadelphia Eagles on Monday.

FOX Sports Research dove into the numbers to give you all the most notable betting trends heading into the weekend. From player-specific notes to overall patterns in the wild-card round, we have you covered with the most profitable trends for the big games this weekend.

Let’s take a look!

Underdogs bark in the Wild Card Round

Since the wild-card format was introduced in 1978, underdogs are 87-76-5 against the spread (ATS) (53.4%) and 66-102 straight up (SU) (39.3%).
Since the wild-card format was introduced in 1978, home underdogs are 18-9-1 ATS (66.7%) and 14-14 SU (50%).
Since 2015, underdogs are 23-15 ATS (60.5%) and 14-24 SU (36.8%) in the wild-card round.
Since 2000, underdogs are 52-44-2 ATS (54.2%) and 36-62 SU (36.7%) in the wild-card round.

Home underdogs this weekend: Buccaneers (+3) vs. Eagles, and Houston Texans (+2.5) vs. Cleveland Browns

Eagles vs. Buccaneers best bets, odds and predictions

Dolphins looking to break cold weather curse

Since the 2003 season, Miami Dolphins are 15-13 ATS (53.6%) and 9-19 SU (32.1%) in games where the average temperature was 40 degrees or less (regular season + playoffs).
Since the 2017 season, Dolphins are 2-6 ATS (25%) with eight straight losses in games where the average temperature was 39 degrees or less (regular season + playoffs).
Since the 2016 season, Dolphins have lost 10 straight games in which the kickoff temperature was 40 degrees or lower.
Dolphins are 7-7-1 ATS (50%) and 3-12 SU (20%) as a road underdog over the last three seasons (regular season + playoffs).
Dolphins are looking for their first playoff win since the 2000 season.
Dolphins are 6-7 ATS and SU (46.2%) in the wild-card round all-time.
Tua Tagovailoa is 0-4 SU in games where the kickoff temperature was 45 degrees or lower.
Tua Tagovailoa is 3-7-1 ATS (30%) and 2-9 SU (18.2%) as a starter on the road against teams that enter the game with a record above .500.

Joe Flacco perfect in Wild Card

Joe Flacco is 5-0 ATS and SU in the wild-card round of the playoffs in his career, tied with Philip Rivers for the best record of any QB in the round since its inception in 1978.
Flacco is 11-4 ATS (73.3%) and 10-5 SU (66.7%) as a starter in the playoffs over his career; that’s the second-best ATS record of any QB since 2003 (min. nine playoff starts), trailing only two-time Super Bowl champion Eli Manning (9-3 ATS, 75%).
Flacco is 9-3 ATS (75%) and 7-5 SU (58.3%) as a starter on the road for his career; that’s the second-best ATS record of any QB since 2003 (min. six playoff starts), trailing only two-time Super Bowl champion Eli Manning (6-1 ATS, 85.7%).
Flacco is 3-1 ATS (75%) and 4-0 SU as a starter when a favorite in the playoffs for his career.
Flacco is 2-0 ATS and SU as a starter when a road favorite in the playoffs for his career.

Fade the Steelers

T.J. Watt will not play due to injury; The Pittsburgh Steelers are 4-6-1 ATS (40%) and 1-10 SU (9.1%) when he has not played since his rookie season.
Mike Tomlin is 2-5 ATS and SU (28.6%) in the wild-card round for his career and has lost two straight games in the round.
Buffalo Bills are 10-6 ATS and 13-3 SU when a favorite of 7-to-9.5 points under Sean McDermott (regular season + playoffs).
Bills are 3-1 ATS and SU (75%) against Steelers under Sean McDermott.

Favorites of seven-plus tend to dominate in Wild Card

Since the wild-card format was introduced in 1978, favorites of seven-plus points are 24-21 ATS (53.3%) and 34-11 SU (75.6%) in the round.
Since the 2004 seasons, favorites of seven-plus points are 14-10 ATS (58.3%) and 19-5 SU (79.2%) in the wild-card round.
Since the wild-card format was introduced in 1978, home favorites of seven-plus points are 24-18 ATS (57.1%) and 33-9 SU (78.6%) in the round.
Both the Cowboys and Packers lost in the Divisional round last postseason; since the wild-card format was introduced in 1978, teams that were favored by seven-plus points and lost in the Divisional round the previous season are 10-4 ATS (71.4%) and 11-3 SU (78.6%).

Favorites that fit this weekend:Dallas Cowboys (-7) vs. Green Bay Packers and Bills (-9.5) vs. Steelers

Dallas looking to overcome postseason struggles

Since the wild-card format was introduced in 1978, the Cowboys are 5-5 ATS (50%) and 7-3 SU (70%) when favorites in the wild card.
Since the 1997 season, the Cowboys are 4-11 ATS and SU (26.7%) in all playoff games.
Since the 1998 season, the Cowboys are 3-6 ATS (33.3%) and 4-5 in the wild-card round.
Dak Prescott is 1-5 ATS (16.7%) and 2-4 SU (33.3%) as a starter in the playoffs for his career.
Matt LaFleur is 18-9 ATS (66.7%) and 15-12 SU (55.6%) as an underdog, and 14-8 ATS (63.6%) and 11-11 SU (50%) as a road underdog in his career (regular season + playoffs).

C.J. Stroud looks to break rookie mold in playoffs

C.J. Stroud is the only rookie QB to make the playoffs this year; rookie QBs are 5-7-1 ATS (41.7%) and 5-8 SU (38.5%) in the wild-card round since the 2003 season.
Stroud will be the fourth QB to face a top-ranked defense in the playoffs and look to be the first to record a win.
Stroud is the 23rd rookie to throw for 3,000 yards in the Super Bowl era; of the previous 22, only seven made the playoffs- and of those seven, Russell Wilson (2012) was the only one to win a playoff game that postseason.
Besides Stroud, three other QBs will make their playoff debut: Tua Tagovailoa, Mason Rudolph, and Jordan Love; since 2002, QBs making their first playoff start facing a QB who has made the playoffs before have gone 17-35-1 ATS (32.7%) and 17-36 SU (32.1%).
Rookies to throw for 3,000+ pass yards: 23 in total. One has won a playoff game: Russell Wilson in 2012. Fifteen missed the playoffs. Six lost their first playoff game.

Unders roar in Wild Card

Since the 1986 season, the Under has hit in 80 of 146 games, with one push (55.2%) in the wild-card round.
Since the 2000 season, the Under has hit in 56 of 98 games, with one push (57.7%) in the wild-card round.
Since the 2010 season, the Under has hit in 35 of 58 games (60.3%) in the wild-card round.
Since the 2015 season, the Under has hit in 22 of 38 games (57.9%) in the wild-card round.
For those wondering how teams do in wind games: Since 2003, there have been 28 playoff games with an average temperature of less than 40 degrees AND average win speeds between 10 and 19 MPH. The Under hit in 19 of those games (with one push) (68%).