NFL Week 15 betting recap: ‘Will depend on Geno’

National Football League

Updated Dec. 18, 2023 11:55 a.m. ET

How people did in the NFL Week 15 odds market — be it bettors or bookmakers — varied depending on the vantage point. Consensus deemed it good for the books that the Buffalo Bills mopped the floor with the Dallas Cowboys. And for some oddsmakers, that was enough to make their day.

But with the Kansas City Chiefs, San Francisco 49ers and Baltimore Ravens winning, too, bettors did some damage. And more fallout could be coming in the form of the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday night.

Oddsmakers from Las Vegas and across the country help rehash the weekend that was in NFL and college football betting.

Let’s dive into the action.

Bills Buffalo Cowboys

As good as the Ravens, Chiefs or the Dolphins are, it’s almost a certainty that, right now, none of those three teams wants a part of the Bills in the postseason. Buffalo is back on track after smacking down Dallas 31-10 as a 2.5-point home favorite.

At 8-6 straight up (SU), the Bills are on the outside looking in right now, sitting ninth in the AFC. But Buffalo nearly beat Philly in Week 12, falling in overtime, then beat K.C. on the road before rolling over Dallas.

John Murray, executive director of The SuperBook, said Cowboys-Bills was a day-making result.

“This is shaping up to be a really good day for us with the Buffalo win. We did well,” Murray said prior to the Ravens-Jaguars Sunday night showdown. “Ravens and Over would take a bit out of the day, but we would still do well.”

Baltimore, a 4-point favorite, covered in its 23-7 win at Jacksonville. But the game fell well short of the 42.5 total, another win behind The SuperBook counter.

Perhaps surprisingly, the one game that The SuperBook didn’t do so well on was the somewhat nondescript Commanders–Rams tilt.

“We got over 80% of our [spread] tickets on the Rams. That is the most public side of the week, and it’s not even close,” Murray said.

So the book gave some back there, as well, though not enough to dent Murray’s outlook on the day.

The SuperBook nearly got a big boost to its weekend Saturday — instead settling for refunds on a push in Cincinnati’s 20-17 win as a 3-point favorite vs. Minnesota.

“If the Vikings had won, we’d have won a huge pile of money. No question that was the Saturday game with the most action,” Murray said. “We were pretty big Vikings fans. We did fine with a push, a good day. But it could’ve been a terrific day.”

The Bills shock Dak’s Cowboys with huge blowout 31-10 win

Moneyline Parlays to Monday

At BetMGM, it was a rough Sunday for bettors who jumped on popular moneyline underdogs. Dallas topped that list as the most popular ‘dog to win outright. The Cowboys were followed by Chicago, which lost at Cleveland 20-17. Bears were followed by New England, which lost to K.C. 27-17.

But a significant swath of BetMGM customers had a great day in backing the Dolphins, Chiefs, 49ers and Ravens. Further, in the 4:05 p.m. ET/4:25 p.m. ET window, all three favorites won and covered — Bills, Niners and Rams.

“All favorites in the afternoon means no bueno for the book,” BetMGM Nevada’s Scott Shelton said.

Added national BetMGM trader Christian Cipollini: “It was a really weird day. We got a few games to go our way, but the important ones didn’t go our way. The Chiefs, Dolphins and 49ers were all bad for us, and those all roll into parlays.”

Which means those parlays rolled into the Ravens on Sunday night. And now, loads of those tickets are live to Philadelphia on Monday night. So Cipollini can’t yet say whether BetMGM will have a good week, a bad week, or land somewhere in the middle.

Making it more complicated: Seahawks QB Geno Smith (groin) is questionable, and news broke Sunday that Eagles QB Jalen Hurts is sick. Hurts took a separate flight to Seattle to avoid potentially getting teammates sick.

“We take most of the money around kickoff, so this will depend on Geno,” Cipollini said. “If there’s no Geno, we’ll need the Seahawks bad. But if Geno plays and Hurts is still sick, we’ll get more Seahawks money.”

Joe Flacco, Browns SHOCK Justin Fields, Bears – Dave Helman reacts

Back To School

The college football bowl odds market kicked off in earnest Saturday, with six games. It wasn’t the most fascinating slate because early bowl games rarely are, so oddsmakers didn’t have much to say about it this weekend.

But just to keep a running tally here over the next couple of weeks:

Favorites went 4-2 straight up
Underdogs went 4-2 against the spread
On totals, the Over/Under split 3-3

Check back next week to see how these trends develop.

I Like Big Bets and I Cannot Lie

Per usual, Caesars Sports saw a fair amount of high-roller traffic this weekend. And the results were not good on our side of the counter, as the house dominated. Among the holiday donations:

$150,000 Cowboys +2.5 at Bills. We’ve covered that ground.
$110,000 Jets +12 at Dolphins. New York was shut out 30-0.
$110,000 Broncos +5 at Lions. Denver got run 42-17.
$100,000 Steelers +1 at Colts. Pittsburgh loses 30-13.

One fortuitous bettor didn’t win on a major wager but at least got the money back in the Vikes-Bengals tilt. Which is saying something, considering Cincinnati trailed 17-3 heading into the fourth quarter. The bettor had a hefty $220,000 on Bengals -3.

Jake Browning and Co. rallied to tie it at 24 and force overtime, then won 27-24. The Bengals pushed, and the bettor survived to play another day.

A DraftKings Sportsbook customer got the better of the Vikes-Bengals line, putting $25,087 (yes, that’s kinda random) on Minnesota +3.5 (-120). A 3-point loss was just fine, as the bettor profited $20,906, for a $45,993 total payout.

Win or lose, these wagers are good reminders to keep it reasonable. Don’t bet more than you can afford to lose. Enjoy the Eagles-Seahawks MNF game – with whomever might be on the field at QB.

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.