NFL Week 4 Best Bets: Take the Bears, Cardinals to cover

National Football League

Published Sep. 27, 2024 12:08 p.m. ET

Co-Host of THE HERD and FOX Sports Betting Analyst

Week 3 proved to be my week.

Now, ahead of Week 4 in the NFL, as always, we have a ton of live action to put our dollars behind. And I don’t blame you for being overwhelmed deciding what to bet on.

That’s where I come in.

Let’s see if we can go 3-0 for the second week in a row.

(All times ET)

Sunday, Sept. 29

Eagles @ Buccaneers (1 p.m., FOX and the FOX Sports App)

Last week we struck gold with the Eagles, who dominated the Saints and, despite Nick Siranni’s best efforts, got the cover on the road. But it was a costly win, as star tackle Lane Johnson was lost to a concussion, DeVonta Smith also left the game due to a concussion, and A.J. Brown missed the game due to a hamstring.

Why this is really important is that next week the Eagles have a bye. Would the Eagles really try to rush back any of that trio with the potential for an extra week of rest?

I’m on Tampa here, anticipating the Eagles won’t rush back anyone as this is a marathon, not a sprint. It’s less a bet on Tampa here, but more a fade of the Eagles.

The Bucs looked awful last week, which was predictable off the win against the Lions. Tampa has injury issues of its own — start with defensive linemen Calijah Kancey and Vita Vea — and there’s a world where Saquon Barkley rushes for 150 yards and the Eagles steal a road win.

But will they be able to get margin, or is this going to be a 13-12 Eagles win?

It is a revenge spot for Philly after the playoff humiliation. Also, keep an eye on tropical storm Helene, which could create a windy, sloppy field.

PICK: Buccaneers (+2.5) to lose by fewer than 2.5 points, or win outright

Rams @ Bears (1 p.m., FOX and the FOX Sports App)

The first bet I made this week was on the Bears at -2, and then -2.5. It got to Bears -3 on Wednesday and hasn’t really budged. At first glance, how can Chicago be favored over the Rams? L.A. just beat mighty San Francisco, and has an enormous coach and QB edge in this game. The Bears are last in yards per play in the NFL, and their only win was a lucky triumph over Tennessee when Will Levis literally gave the game away.

This spot for the Rams reminds me of Week 2. In the opener vs the Lions, the Rams emptied the tank and lost in overtime. They went to Arizona all banged up, and got pummeled 41-10. They emptied the tank against the 49ers, rallying from down 10 with seven minutes left for an improbable victory.

Oh, by the way — the Rams have a big one next week against Sean McVay’s good friend Matt LaFleur.

PICK: Bears (-3) to win by more than 3 points

Commanders @ Cardinals (4:05 p.m., FOX and the FOX Sports App)

One small theme with this week’s picks: backing a team off a loss against a team off a win. Arizona looked fantastic in a loss to Buffalo and it dropped 41 on the Rams. Then the Lions, who were off a surprising home loss to the Bucs, shut down Arizona’s offense. We know Washington won’t be able to do that, as its defense couldn’t slow down Baker Mayfield, Daniel Jones or Joe Burrow.

In a staggering stat, the Commanders have forced just two punts this season.

The question is whether Arizona can get enough stops to get margin and pull away for the cover. Sure, the Cardinals held the Lions scoreless in the second half last Sunday, but Jayden Daniels is more of a scrambling QB than Jared Goff, and we saw how Arizona struggled to contain Allen in the opener (6 rushes, 44 yards).

Arizona’s best offense — which may be missing Trey McBride due to a concussion — is probably a heavy dose James Conner, and I anticipate a big game from Marvin Harrison, who might be lined up opposite rookie Mike Sainristil, who is off to a tough start, grading out as the 86th cornerback out of 97. He’s given up 11 catches on 13 targets.

PICK: Cardinals (-3) to win by more than 3 points

Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst who also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead. Follow him on Twitter @JasonRMcIntyre.

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