NFL Week 5 odds, predictions, best bets by Chris ‘The Bear’ Fallica

National Football League

Updated Oct. 5, 2023 4:23 p.m. ET

“Bear Bets” are real wagers that Chris “The Bear” Fallica is actually making.

Nothing makes football better than having a few bucks on the games. And if you are looking for some wagers to get in on the action, I have you covered.

Last week, we went 2-2. Let’s turn it around in Week 5 of the NFL season.

Lastly, don’t forget to check out my digital gambling show and podcast. We appreciate everyone who has listened and can’t wait to provide you with some winners. As a reminder, the college football-focused episodes — presented by Big Noon Kickoff — will be released on Thursdays, while the NFL-themed episodes will drop on Fridays.

Now, let’s get into the fun. Here are my best bets for the Week 5 NFL slate.

Last Week: 2-2 (Season: 7-9)

All times ET Sunday

Jets at Broncos (4:25 p.m., CBS)

I’d be careful with the narrative that Zach Wilson has turned a corner and the Jets’ season could be saved. Yes, Wilson played one of his better games Sunday night vs. Kansas City. But the Jets offensive line is still a problem, and it’s not like Wilson was perfect the other night.

On the flip side, Denver was gifted a win by the horrific Bears on Sunday, but a win is a win. This might just be a spot where the Broncos are a little undervalued against a team where public opinion might be a tad high after everyone saw them take the Chiefs to the final minutes Sunday night.

PICK: Denver (-1.5) to win by 2 points or more

Bengals at Cardinals (4:05 p.m., FOX and FOX Sports app)

Arizona has competed every week and has been far from the worst team in the league, as many thought it would be. This number has dropped like a rock since the opening line. I haven’t heard many — if any — make a case for the Bengals in this game, who offensively are a mess. Joe Burrow can barely move; he’s in shotgun every play, and it looks like a team on the brink of coming undone.

But as bad as they looked last week, I do like them at the reduced price, as the last couple of weeks were just circumstantial — the Giants are one of the worst teams in the league, the Cowboys were shorthanded and potentially looking ahead to the Patriots game and the 49ers got up early and might have started to coast ahead of their game with Dallas this week.

I’m laying the points in this one.

PICK: Bengals (-3) to win by more than 3 points

Brock Purdy is tied for sixth-best odds to win MVP

Titans at Colts (1 p.m., CBS)

This is a “typical NFL” type of game. Tennessee was impressive last week in throttling the Bengals, while the Colts fell behind the Rams 23-0 before losing in overtime, as Matthew Stanford willed his team to win. I’m banking on the Colts playing 60 minutes here while expecting some regression from a Titans team that still has its fair share of offensive deficiencies.

PICK: Colts (+2.5) to lose by 2 points or fewer (or win outright)

Jaguars vs. Bills (9:30 a.m., NFL Net)

Last week felt like the Bills’ Super Bowl, and they indeed played like it. Now they go to London to take on Jacksonville, which did enough to get past a bad Falcons team but still hasn’t looked like the team many thought it would be this year. But now the Jags get to go out as an underdog and play free and loose, as nobody will give them much of a shot. And that makes them very dangerous this week.

Grab the points.

PICK: Jaguars (+5.5) to lose by 5 points or fewer (or win outright)

Joe Burrow insists Bengals vs. Cardinals is a ‘must-win game’

SURVIVOR

Tread Lightly:Philadelphia

Not that I think many are considering going with a road favorite this week, but the Rams have been just frisky enough to give teams problems, especially if Stafford has healed up since last week and can keep the rapport with Puka Nacua going.

Risk Reward: Denver

Yeah, it’s hard to trust the Broncos, but this is more a play against the Jets. At some point, you’ll need to make a decision when to use one of the big guns and when you can afford to take a little chance. After this week, I can’t imagine ever wanting to use the Broncos again, so if you’re in with multiple entries or in a bigger pool that calls for some game theory, may I suggest — gulp — going with the Broncos?

Top Pick: Detroit

The Lions are good but not great. And they can certainly lose to a few of the mid-level teams in the league. But the Panthers might be the worst team in the league and that Lions front should continue to make life miserable for Bryce Young and his lack of weapons. Detroit does have a couple of games with the Bears, but it looks like there are other options those weeks. I’d feel fine using the Lions here.

Chris “The Bear” Fallica has covered sports for nearly three decades. While college football has been his focus, he also enjoys the NFL, Soccer, Golf, Tennis, MLB, NHL and Horse Racing, with an “occasional” wager on such events. Chris recently won the inaugural Circa Football Invitational and finished in the Top 10 of the Golden Nugget Football Contest. He’s a multiple-time qualifier for the NHC Handicapping Championship. Remember, “The less you bet, the more you lose when you win!” Follow him on Twitter @chrisfallica.