Notre Dame’s outright loss equals monumental win for sportsbooks

chonprasit

College Football

Published Sep. 8, 2024 1:51 a.m. ET

facebook x reddit link

Patrick Everson

FOX Sports Betting Analyst

There’s generally not a whole lot of seismic activity in South Bend, Indiana.

But an earthquake of an upset was felt there on Saturday.

Notre Dame was a massive 28-point home favorite in its home opener, yet lost to Northern Illinois 16-14. And the Fighting Irish setback was a substantial gain for some oddsmakers.

“Notre Dame’s outright loss is massive for us,” said Zachary Lucas, director of retail sports for TwinSpires Sportsbook.

A couple of oddsmakers chimed in after the stunning result, which will no doubt hamper Notre Dame’s College Football Playoff odds, as well.

Parlays Go Poof

Granted, there weren’t a whole lot of people playing Notre Dame -28 on their straight bets. And Notre Dame was in the -6000 to -8000 range on the moneyline, so that wasn’t attractive for straight bets, either. Even at -6000, it would take a $6,000 bet to win just $100.

However, enough TwinSpires customers felt compelled to put the Irish in their moneyline parlays. Even though the value in doing so is almost nonexistent at those odds.

Notre Dame was basically seen as a free space on a moneyline parlay Bingo card, a sure bet to just win the game, regardless of score. But it didn’t work out that way.

Northern Illinois got a field goal in the final minute to go up 16-14, then blocked a 62-yard field-goal attempt by Notre Dame as time expired.

“The point spread wasn’t a big decision, but Notre Dame moneyline was in every parlay,” Lucas said.

Some Bettors Steer Clear

Prime Sportsbook, which operates in Ohio and New Jersey, tends to take more sharp action than most operators. And Prime took less parlay money on Saturday’s game, too. So the book came out only modestly ahead on Notre Dame’s upset loss.

“Our action was fairly balanced on the game. It was a small win for us, since it seemed like there were a lot of Irish doubters on this one, both pregame and in-game,” Prime Sportsbook executive chairman Joe Brennan Jr. said. “Even some of the big-money square bettors we get, who like to chase big moneyline favorites, steered clear of this one.”

CFP Could Be A Memory

In Week 1, Notre Dame went to Texas A&M as a 3-point underdog and notched a 23-13 victory. That had the Irish on what looked like a pretty nice path to the College Football Playoff, save for the Nov. 30 regular-season finale at USC.

And Notre Dame’s odds reflected that, moving into the +1600 range to win the national championship. That put Notre Dame among the top eight or so teams.

Now, the Fighting Irish are +7000 to win the CFP title at DraftKings Sportsbook. That’s behind 15 other teams. Another loss might keep Notre Dame not only from a shot at the championship, but even getting a bid into the 12-team playoff.

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.

Follow along with FOX Sports for the latest news on college football and other sports.