Predicting Yankees-Orioles, Braves-Mets, who’ll sign Juan Soto
Lost in the brilliance of Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani and Bobby Witt Jr. is how Juan Soto is producing the best full season of his already prolific career. It’s only raised the price for what figures to be a record-setting deal this winter for a position player.
The bigger question is, where will the 25-year-old superstar sign?
Unknowns abound throughout MLB, as the American League East is virtually even with just three weeks remaining, as are the NL wild-card and Rookie of the Year races.
FOX Sports MLB experts Deesha Thosar and Rowan Kavner tackle these topics and more in this week’s roundtable.
1. Who’s going to win the AL East?
Kavner: After the Yankees‘ recent slide, it’s basically a toss-up right now. But as poorly as it has gone for the Bronx Bombers of late, they still get to play Oakland and Pittsburgh before season’s end. Meanwhile, the worst teams the Orioles will see are the Rays, Giants and Tigers, who are all worthy adversaries. If they played the same opponents the rest of the way, I’d take the O’s. But they don’t, so I’m leaning Yankees.
Thosar: The Orioles. They finally have a bit more experience on their side to help them not only finish strong down the stretch, but also potentially enjoy a deeper October run than their underwhelming early exit last year. I’m expecting Corbin Burnes to really turn it on, especially with some easier potential matchups against the Rays, Tigers and Giants the rest of this month. Plus, Baltimore can lean on the fact that it just surprised everyone and won the division last year. On the other hand, the Yankees are struggling to capitalize on their relatively simple schedule against teams that are out of contention, all while playing without urgency and failing to put their best players on the field in this important stretch.
Now, if the Yankees do actually call up top prospect Jasson Domínguez to help out their offense, and do some creative maneuvering to improve the bullpen (a possible solution is proposed later in this story), the division should be theirs. But they’re wasting precious time on both fronts, with no Martian landing in sight, so the Orioles get the advantage here.
2. Who, aside from the Phillies, do you expect to make the playoffs from the NL East?
Thosar: It’s a tough call between the Mets and the Braves — with an outside chance that both NL East teams make it in, if one or both of the D-backs and Padres have rough September stretches. But with the red-hot way Francisco Lindor is playing, he might just take his Queens club into the postseason. The shortstop has a 33-game on-base streak to complement a 15-game hitting streak. In addition to leading the NL in WAR, Lindor’s 20 extra-base hits since Aug. 1 are the most in the NL and third-most in the majors.
Perhaps due to the Lindor effect, the Mets have looked like a complete team of late. Their pitching staff has recorded the fifth-best team ERA in baseball in the second half, whereas the Chris Sale-led Braves have the 10th-best ERA in the majors in that same span. New York has also produced better offensive numbers than Atlanta since the All-Star break, all while playing inspired baseball and winning tough series against playoff contenders down the stretch. The Mets have had too many positive, memeable storylines (the emergence of Grimace and infielder Jose Iglesias releasing ‘OMG’ all in the same season!) to let the good vibes go to waste.
Kavner: The Braves. As bad as all the injuries have been, it’s still hard to imagine them completely out of the dance. Of course, that’s more than possible now, with the Mets on a W7 and surging to a tie for that final wild-card spot. The Mets still have the Nationals, Blue Jays and Reds on the schedule, but 13 of their final 16 games will come against the Phillies, Braves and Brewers. That is a treacherous stretch. The Braves will also see the Nats, Jays and Reds, and they get a trip to Miami mixed in. They also don’t face the Phillies again. The road ahead is not as ominous, so I’ll still favor them. Whatever happens to the Mets down the stretch, it will be great theater.
3. What’s your early prediction for where Juan Soto will sign this offseason?
Kavner: The Yankees. Where would their offense be this year without him? Among all the contenders, there’s a strong argument no team needs his bat more, and he seems to be feeding off the energy of the fans in the Bronx. If the Yankees let him walk, woooo buddy. My dark-horse team would be Washington, where he seemed to love his time. The Nationals secured CJ Abrams, Mackenzie Gore, James Wood and company by dealing away Soto; how cool would it be if Soto then came back to lead the team he helped rebuild into the future? Now, to do that, the Nats would have to give him about $100 million more than the $440 million Soto turned down from them the first time. Are they willing to go there? We’ll see. I still think it’s most likely he stays where he is.
Thosar: Despite how underwhelming the Yankees have been in recent weeks, I still think Soto is theirs to lose. He has so clearly enjoyed playing in the Bronx — putting on a show and putting up career numbers — and the Yankees and Soto made for a perfect match well before they traded for him this past offseason. As long as the Yankees still make the postseason, and it would be a complete disaster if they don’t, I’m expecting Soto’s performance to reach yet another level in the playoffs, perhaps propelling the Bronx Bombers to a deeper October run than some think they’re currently capable of. Hal Steinbrenner will have the tough task of meeting Soto’s eye-popping asking price in free agency, and it’s doubtful he will top Mets owner Steve Cohen’s offer in an attempt to bring the slugger to Queens.
But if the paycheck is close enough, and Soto has valued his time in the Bronx as much as he has shown he has, then I think he’s ending up in pinstripes long-term. Plus, Steinbrenner and the Yankees would never hear the end of it if they let Soto get away.
4. How would you size up the NL Rookie of the Year race at the moment?
Thosar: That the race is captivating, and we should all be paying more attention to it. Ultimately, this is a two-man race between Paul Skenes and Jackson Merrill, and I’m giving the slight edge to Merrill for now for his ability to provide a spark for the playoff-contending Padres. And it’s not just any spark, because Merrill is doing more than the obvious — leading all rookies in WAR, home runs, RBIs and games played. Beyond those stats, it’s incredibly difficult for a rookie to step up in late-game, high-leverage moments, which is exactly the kind of impact Merrill is providing for San Diego. When it’s all wrapped up and there’s a bow on the regular season, Merrill’s outstanding rookie year could be one of the biggest reasons the Padres make the postseason, and that type of surge goes far in consideration for Rookie of the Year voting.
Kavner: Good luckcomparing one of this year’s most clutch, late-game hitters to one of its most overpowering pitchers in the game. Much like Bobby Witt Jr. would be running away with the MVP trophy if he played in the National League, any of Paul Skenes, Jackson Merrill or Jackson Chourio would easily win Rookie of the Year if they played in the American League instead. I had Merrill leapfrogging Skenes for the first time in my latest rookie power rankings, as much as it pained my LSU soul. That’s nothing against what Skenes has done — he has more than lived up to the massive expectations placed upon him after being drafted No. 1 overall last year — and everything to do with the clutch hits Merrill is providing.
When it’s basically a toss-up, it’s really difficult for a pitcher to win the award. It’ll be interesting to see how the Pirates handle Skenes over the final month now that the Pirates probably won’t be playing for anything, but the way Merrill is impacting games late on a seemingly nightly basis for a playoff contender — he leads all rookies in hits, homers, triples and RBIs, has an OPS over 1.000 in late/close situations and has six game-tying or go-ahead homers in the eighth inning or later — I think he has done enough to be leading the tight competition for now. Don’t count out Chourio, either, who had a lot of ground to make up after a slow start to the year and has done it by leading the NL in batting average since the start of June.
5. Which non-ace is the biggest X-factor on the mound for each league this September?
Kavner: I’ll take Spencer Schwellenbach in the NL and Alex Cobb in the AL. Despite all the injuries in Atlanta, the Braves’ rotation has remained a formidable group, and it goes beyond likely Cy Young Award winner Chris Sale and Reynaldo López. Schwellenbach has been one of the best rookie pitchers in baseball since the All-Star break, allowing three runs or fewer in nine of his past 10 starts. As the Braves try to hold onto a playoff spot, he has helped stabilize their rotation. The Guardians did little to fix their troubling rotation at the deadline, but they took a flier on Cobb, who didn’t debut this year until August. Cobb just went six scoreless this past weekend and will be an interesting piece down the stretch for a Cleveland starting staff that could use the help.
Thosar: For the AL, I’ll go with Yankees right-hander Luis Gil as he returns from injury this week. He was the reason the Yankees pitching staff didn’t crumble when Gerrit Cole was on the injured list for the first two-plus months, and now the rookie can make a big impact again for New York’s bullpen — aka the area that is the club’s biggest concern — should the powers that be move him there. Closer Clay Holmes is providing more nausea than saves of late, and the Yankees need a quick fix before they all but spiral out of a chance for a division title. Gil does have a high walk rate, which could be an issue in save situations, but right now the Yankees need someone who will blow batters away with strikeouts and high velo, and Gil has already proven he can do that.
For the NL, I’ll go with the rehabbing Yoshinobu Yamamoto because the Dodgers‘ starting pitching continues to be their biggest concern. How Yamamoto pitches when he returns from the injured list could be the difference between a deep October run or another early exit for Los Angeles. Of course, the still-injured Tyler Glasnow will also have plenty to do with the Dodgers’ postseason chances. But Yamamoto was settling into the major leagues and coming off his best start of the season before going on the IL, making his impending return that much more important for the Dodgers’ ravaged rotation this month.
Deesha Thosar is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. She previously covered the Mets as a beat reporter for the New York Daily News. The daughter of Indian immigrants, Deesha grew up on Long Island and now lives in Queens. Follow her on Twitter at @DeeshaThosar.
Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.
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