Sam Darnold: Buying or selling? Kirk Cousins on the clock? Bengals, Browns in trouble?
News flash after Week 1: The Chiefs, Eagles, Lions and Cowboys are good. But who expected blowout wins by the Bucs, Vikings and Saints, and who expected the Patriots to beat the Bengals?
But hey, that’s why they play the games. And that’s why we ask the questions. Heading into Week 2, the FOX Sports NFL experts tackle five pertinent topics.
By the way, the Patriots can take heart in this stat: Since 1990, teams that win their season openers are more than twice as likely to make the playoffs as teams that lose their opener.
Now let’s get started.
Half the starting NFL quarterbacks posted a QBR under 50 in Week 1. Is this a first-game thing or a real concern?
Ralph Vacchiano: That depends on if your team has one of the quarterbacks in the top half or the bottom. Actually, there are some good ones who struggled, so it’s most likely a first-game thing. Jalen Hurts (38.8), Dak Prescott (30.9), Justin Herbert (31.5), Jared Goff (38.1) and Jordan Love (when he’s healthy to play again) (20.4) will be just fine.
That said, there is a lot of mediocre-to-bad quarterback play in this league and some teams are really struggling to find good QBs. The Giants, with Daniel Jones (16.6), and the Browns, with Deshaun Watson (9.3), probably should be concerned. Same with the Falcons and Kirk Cousins (28.9), though at least they’ve got Michael Penix Jr. waiting in the wings. Nobody should overreact to one week, but a good argument can be made that seven to eight teams could have some serious quarterback issues this year.
Greg Auman: It’s reasonable to think that NFL offenses were unusually conservative in Week 1, remembering that starting quarterbacks barely played in preseason and half the league has new offensive coordinators calling plays. Does that make head coaches extra risk-averse? Perhaps. But half the starting quarterbacks also didn’t throw any interceptions in Week 1 as well. I think you’ll see teams get more aggressive and look downfield more as they gain confidence in their quarterbacks and their offenses. That might not take long.
Are you buying or selling on Sam Darnold as an above-average QB this season?
Ben Arthur: Buying. Look, I understand how much Darnold struggled early in his career. How he was a bust as the No. 3 overall pick in the 2018 draft by the New York Jets. How he saw “ghosts.” How he’d been relegated to backup status before this season. But with the Vikings, he’s been empowered as a starter (with rookie first-rounder J.J. McCarthy out for the year). Darnold has a quarterback-friendly, offensive-minded coach in Kevin McConnell. He has an uber-talented cast of weapons around him, led by superstar wide receiver Justin Jefferson. He has a good offensive line in front of him.
Will all his games look as good as his Minnesota debut, when he completed 79.2% of his passes for 208 yards and two touchdowns against just one interception? Absolutely not. But given his experience and the surrounding situation, there’s enough to believe this could be a career year for Darnold.
Eric D. Williams: I’m buying it. After stops with the Jets and the Carolina Panthers, Darnold finally landed with one of the best offensive minds in football in Kyle Shanahan last season. A year with the San Francisco 49ers, serving as the backup to Brock Purdy, gave Darnold an opportunity to reset his career and learn from some of the best in the business in Shanahan and quarterbacks coach Brian Griese.
In his only start for San Francisco in 2023, Darnold went 28-of-46 for 297 yards, with two touchdowns and an interception. Playing in a similar offense now under O’Connell, Darnold looks poised and comfortable, efficiently distributing the ball to Minnesota’s playmakers. Just 27 years old, Darnold appears to have found the right spot for him to thrive.
Henry McKenna: Both? He’s a below-average quarterback who was lucky enough to hit free agency at the right moment to land in one of the best situations for a quarterback in the NFL. So he’ll perform at an above-average level for most of the season, because he has Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and a really solid offensive line. Coach Kevin O’Connell helps, too. There will be strings of solid play from Darnold. But I bet we’ll also see a game or two where he’s haunted by the ghosts of his subpar past.
After one week of the season, is there a team that was expected to be good that you’re already worried about?
Vacchiano: I feel like this is a yearly thing, but right off the bat I’m worried about the Cincinnati Bengals. Again. I get that they were missing Tee Higgins in Week 1, and they lost Tyler Boyd and Joe Mixon in the offseason. But this is still a team that has Joe Burrow at quarterback and Ja’Marr Chase at receiver. Scoring just 10 points and gaining just 224 yards against the New England Patriots is just inexcusable.
I know the Patriots had a good defensive team last year and most of the top defenders returned. Still, the Bengals should have been able to move the ball a little bit. But Burrow looked off. Chase looked like he missed all of camp (which he did). And new running back Zack Moss looked … well, not much like Mixon.
Just the fact that the Bengals have Burrow is enough to make me believe they’ll bounce back. But in a division with the Ravens and Steelers, they can’t wait long.
Williams: The Rams‘ start reminds me of the 2022 campaign, when they struggled to a 5-12 record after winning the Super Bowl. Back then, Sean McVay had to patch together an offensive line that used 12 different starting combinations through the first 13 games. That upheaval eventually led to Matthew Stafford getting pounded and finishing the season on injured reserve with a bruised spinal cord.
This season, guard Steven Avila, who played a team-high 1,148 snaps in 2023, is already headed to the injured list with a sprained MCL. Starting right tackle Rob Havenstein did not play in the season opener due to an ankle injury. His availability for this week’s game at Arizona is a question mark, along with right guard Kevin Dotson (ankle).
Starting left tackle Alaric Jackson is serving a two-game suspension for violating the NFL’s personal conduct policy. Jackson’s replacement, Joe Noteboom, suffered an ankle injury and is week-to-week. Receiver Puka Nacua, the team’s most productive playmaker last year, is out at least four weeks with a knee injury. Finally, cornerback Cobie Durant, who’s filling in for starter Darious Williams as he recovers from a hamstring issue, suffered a toe injury against the Lions.
“We’re not going to sulk,” McVay said. “We’re going to get the next guy ready to go. We’re going to get some new bodies in here, and then we’ll be grateful when we do get those guys that are injured back.”
Auman: Cleveland could be in trouble. The Browns had one of the league’s best defenses last year, and Dallas racked up 33 points easily on Sunday. Deshaun Watson had 45 passes and managed 169 yards, a career low in yards per attempt. Amari Cooper had nine targets and 16 yards. The Browns are in perhaps the toughest division in football so if they don’t look significantly better in their next four against the lowly Jaguars, Giants, Raiders and Commanders, it could be a long year.
McKenna: I’m with Greg. I thought the Browns would come out and get the Cowboys’ season off to a dysfunctional start. Cleveland looked to have one of the best defenses and a group of playmakers on offense who could elevate a fading Deshaun Watson. This Browns team didn’t just come out flat, they looked incompetent in every phase. The defense was useless against Dak Prescott & Co. The offense looks irreparable as long as Watson is at QB. If the Browns are going to fix this, they need a new QB. (Where’s Joe Flacco when you need him?!) But just as important, they need that defense to do a 180. The AFC North isn’t a division where the Browns can survive if Week 1 was representative of what they’ll look like this year.
Is there a player or coach who isn’t getting the love he deserves for his Week 1 performance?
Arthur: Colts wide receiver Alec Pierce deserves a tip of the cap. Though it was in a losing effort, he caught three passes for a career-high 125 yards in Week 1 (third among all players). League observers heaped praise on quarterback Anthony Richardson for his two completions of 50-plus yards (and for good reason), but those connections are a two-way street, and Pierce made terrific grabs on both — the viral 60-yarder for a touchdown and the leaping 57-yarder to set up another.
Michael Pittman Jr., Josh Downs and second-round rookie AD Mitchell grab the national headlines in Indianapolis’ wide receiver room, but don’t be surprised to see Pierce be the one who has a breakout in 2024. With Richardson back healthy and under center, Pierce finally has a quarterback who has the arm strength to get him the ball downfield, something that Gardner Minshew struggled with last year.
McKenna: I want to talk about Dak Prescott. His stats were meh. And so I think we’ve lumped him into the pack of quarterbacks — mentioned above — who had crappy opening weeks. But that’s not really fair. Prescott came out with such a vengeance in the opening quarter that the Cowboys basically put this game away by halftime. It was clear the Browns weren’t scoring on Dallas. A comeback wasn’t happening. So Mike McCarthy went to the running game with Ezekiel Elliott and Rico Dowdle. The Cowboys rode those guys to a win. But Prescott looked ready to dissect this Browns defense, if needed. The Cowboys were just so good that they didn’t really need him to do much.
If you’re new Falcons coach Raheem Morris, how long do you give Kirk Cousins to produce before giving Michael Penix Jr. a look?
David Helman:My cynical answer to this question is that it’s probably not entirely up to Raheem Morris to make that decision. When you pay a quarterback $180 million to be your starter, Falcons general manager Terry Fontenot and even owner Arthur Blank are going to have a say in benching him.
Having said that, we need to keep a close eye on Kirk Cousins in Week 2 against Philadelphia, because Week 1 was strange. The Falcons pretty clearly did not want their quarterback moving around a lot against Pittsburgh, as evidenced by the fact that he did not take a single snap from under center, nor did he attempt a single play-action pass. That’s odd for a guy who took 30% of his snaps from under center last season, and who has averaged nine play-action attempts per game dating back to 2018.
It makes sense if the Falcons are trying to keep Cousins from putting strain on the Achilles he tore last season, but it stops making sense if he can’t operate an effective offense. If things aren’t looking much better in two-to-three weeks, it might be time to have a conversation.
Auman: Kirk Cousins could have made this simple by playing well and winning early this season. That would reinforce why Atlanta gave him $180 million, and it would keep Michael Penix on the sideline of the national conversation about the Falcons. They couldn’t beat the Steelers on Sunday when their defense didn’t give up a touchdown, which makes you wonder who they can beat in their next four games, against the Eagles, Chiefs, Saints and Bucs.
Cousins has thrown interceptions in back-to-back games just once in his last 16, so it’ll be telling if he has problems with turnovers in Philadelphia on Monday. He hasn’t had multiple interceptions in back-to-back games since September 2020, and only twice in his NFL career, so doing that in his first two games as a Falcon would be concerning.
McKenna: This Kirk Cousins situation is about to get awfully awkward. Dave made an excellent point about how Cousins’ physical limitations led to widespread offensive limitations for Atlanta. Greg made the excellent point about the Falcons’ challenging schedule.
This is where the old adage about having two quarterbacks (and, in turn, having no quarterback) comes into play. We can all see what’s coming: 1) The Falcons aren’t going to give Cousins the runway to regain confidence in his Achilles. 2) Cousins is going to feel Penix breathing down his neck and so the veteran QB will start forcing things. 3) Atlanta is going to bench its $180-million man, probably after Week 3. 4) Penix will take over. At that point, would the Falcons trade Cousins to unload his contract? That’d be embarrassing for GM Fontenot, but if Penix plays well, it would also be excusable.
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These insights were provided by:
NFL reporter Ben Arthur (@benyarthur)
NFL reporter Greg Auman (@gregauman)
NFL reporter David Helman (@davidhelman)
NFL reporter Henry McKenna (@McKennAnalysis)
NFL reporter Eric D. Williams (@eric_d_williams)
NFL reporter Ralph Vacchiano (@RalphVacchiano)
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