San Francisco 49ers vs. Green Bay Packers divisional round: Prediction, odds, picks

National Football League

Published Jan. 17, 2024 11:00 a.m. ET

The San Francisco 49ers are solid favorites, expected to win by at least a touchdown (currently -9.5), in their NFC Playoffs matchup versus the Green Bay Packers. The total for this one is set at 50.5 points.

The 49ers ended the season on a hot streak, winning six of their last eight en route to capturing the No. 1 seed in the NFC and earning a bye last weekend.

Similarly, the Packers also finished the regular season winning six of their last eight, and continued the heater by easily dispatching the Dallas Cowboys 48-32 in the Wild Card round.

Here’s everything you need to know about the matchup between the Packers and 49ers — the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and expert picks from our betting analysts Will Hill and Geoff Schwartz.

49ers vs. Packers Odds & Betting Lines

49ers vs Packers Betting Information updated as of January 16, 2024, 3:33 PM ET.
Favorite	Spread	Favorite Spread Odds	Underdog Spread Odds	Total	Over Total Odds	Under Total Odds
49ers	-9.5	-110	-110	50.5	-110	-110

49ers vs. Packers Prediction & Pick

Pick ATS: San Francisco (-9.5)
Pick OU: Under (50.5)
Prediction: San Francisco 29 – Green Bay 17

Pick via FOX Sports Betting Analyst Will Hill

I’m going back to the well and fading this Packers defense.

The Cowboys left a lot of points on the board, and they still got to 32 points and went Over their team total last week. This is a Packers D that allowed 30 to the Panthers just a few weeks ago, and will have a hard time slowing down a healthy and rested offensive juggernaut that had extra time to prepare.

The 49ers may struggle to get enough stops to cover the 9.5-point spread, but they will score at will.

PICK: 49ers TT Over 29

Jordan Love climbs Mahomes Mountain (Nick’s QB Tiers) post Wild Card Weekend

Pick via FOX Sports Betting Analyst Geoff Schwartz

The Green Bay Packers upset the Dallas Cowboys as 7-point road favorites and now get the pleasure of going to San Francisco to face the No. 1 seed 49ers.

This is a battle of historically relevant NFC franchises and a throwback to my childhood of watching the 49ers in the 90s. I’m excited about this one.

If you’ve managed to dodge this knowledge so far, let me be the first to remind you that the Packers have the youngest offense in the NFL, and they’ve improved since early in the season.

Since Week 10, the Packers offense is third in DVOA and fourth in expected points added with Jordan Love under center. They’ve legitimately played good football on offense.

However, on the other side of the ball, it’s been awful. They are 28th in defensive DVOA and 25th in EPA per play. Remember, the Packers allowed 30 points to the Panthers in Week 16 — a team that failed to score in the final two games of their season.

So with that, I’m taking the 49ers team total Over 29.

I understand the risk of wagering on an offense that hasn’t played a meaningful snap yet in 2024. However, I think they have the style of offense that starts fast. They control the line of scrimmage with their rushing attack and design open receiving options early in games.

This 49ers offense ended the season as the best squad in the NFL and they matchup well against the Packers defense.

PICK: 49ers TT Over 29

How to Watch San Francisco vs. Green Bay

Game Date: Saturday, January 20, 2024
Time: 8:15 PM ET
Venue: Levi’s Stadium
Location: Santa Clara, California
TV: Watch on FOX

49ers vs. Packers Recent Matchups

San Francisco owns a 3-2 record against Green Bay in their last five matchups.
Green Bay has been outpaced by 32 points in its last five tilts against San Francisco.

San Francisco Betting Info

San Francisco is 9-8-0 against the spread this season.
The 49ers have an ATS record of 4-3 when playing as at least 9.5-point favorites this season.
San Francisco games this year have gone over the total in nine out of 17 opportunities (52.9%).
The 49ers have put together a 12-5 record in games they played as the moneyline favorite (winning 70.6% of those games).
San Francisco is 6-1 (winning 85.7% of its games) when it have played as a moneyline favorite of -425 or shorter.
The 49ers have an implied win probability, based on the moneyline, of 81.0%.

49ers Stats

Stat	Average (Total)	Rank
Pass yards	257.9 (4,384)	4
Rush yards	140.5 (2,389)	3
Points scored	28.9 (491)	3
Pass yards against	214.2 (3,642)	14
Rush yards against	89.7 (1,525)	3
Points allowed	17.5 (298)	3

San Francisco’s Key Players

Offense

Christian McCaffrey has put up 1,459 rushing yards (first in the NFL) with 14 touchdowns (91.2 yards per game through 16 games). His 5.4 yards per attempt rank second in the league.
McCaffrey has been targeted 83 times in the passing game and has 67 catches (4.2 per game) for 564 yards (35.3 per game) and seven TDs.
Brock Purdy has thrown for 4,280 yards (fifth in the NFL), 31 touchdowns (third in the NFL) and 11 interceptions this year. He averages 267.5 yards per game and 9.6 per attempt, while completing 69.4%.
He has tacked on 144 rushing yards (9 per game) and two touchdowns on the ground.
Through 15 games played, Deebo Samuel is averaging 59.5 yards and four receptions per game to total 892 receiving yards and 60 catches. He’s been targeted 89 times, and has seven receiving touchdowns.
Brandon Aiyuk averages 4.7 receptions and 83.9 yards per game, and has 1,342 total receiving yards (seventh in the NFL) and 75 catches. He’s gotten 105 total targets, and has caught seven touchdown passes.

Defense

On defense for the 49ers, Fred Warner has put up 132 tackles, six TFL, 2.5 sacks, and four interceptions in 2023.
Nick Bosa has 53 tackles, 16 TFL, and 10.5 sacks this season.
Dre Greenlaw has collected 120 tackles, five TFL, and 1.5 sacks this year. He’s second on the 49ers in tackles.
Charvarius Ward has five interceptions (fourth in the NFL) with 72 tackles, two TFL, and 23 passes defended.

Green Bay Betting Info

Green Bay posted a 9-8-0 record against the spread during the regular season. Against the spread in the playoffs, it is 1-0-0.
There were 10 Green Bay games (out of 17) that hit the over in the regular season. In the playoffs, one of one Green Bay games have exceeded the over.
The Packers were underdogs in 11 games during the regular season and won six (54.5%) of those contests. They’ve gone 1-0 in the playoffs.
Green Bay has not been a bigger underdog in the regular season or playoffs this season than the +330 moneyline set for this game.
The Packers have a 23.3% chance to win this game based on the implied probability of the moneyline.

Packers Stats

Stat	Average (Total)	Rank
Pass yards	233.4 (3,968)	12
Rush yards	112.1 (1,905)	15
Points scored	22.5 (383)	12
Pass yards against	206.8 (3,515)	9
Rush yards against	128.3 (2,181)	28
Points allowed	20.6 (350)	10

Green Bay’s Key Players

Offense

Through 17 games played this year, Jordan Love has totaled 4,159 passing yards (seventh-best in the NFL), with 32 touchdowns (second in the NFL) against 11 interceptions and completing 64.2% of his passes.
On the ground, Love has added four rushing touchdowns and 247 rushing yards (third on the Packers).
Jayden Reed has put together a 2023 campaign that includes 64 catches for 793 yards and eight receiving touchdowns (eighth in the NFL) in 16 games played. He has been on the receiving end of 94 targets and is averaging four receptions per game.
Through 17 games played this season, Romeo Doubs has 59 catches (3.5 receptions per game on 5.6 targets per game) for 674 yards and eight receiving touchdowns (eighth in the NFL).
Aaron Jones has scored two touchdowns on the ground, while running for 656 total yards (4.6 per attempt and 59.6 per game).
Jones has also caught 30 passes for 233 yards (seventh on the Packers), with one receiving touchdown. He’s been targeted 43 times and averages 21.2 yards per game.

Defense

Quay Walker’s 2023 output includes 118 tackles, seven TFL, 2.5 sacks, and one interception through 14 games. He leads the Packers in tackles.
Rashan Gary has 44 tackles, seven TFL, and nine sacks.
Preston Smith has 48 tackles, four TFL, and eight sacks in the 2023 season.
Kenny Clark has 7.5 sacks (third on the Packers) to go with nine TFL and 44 tackles through 17 games.

FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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