Scouting Super Bowl LVIII: 5 burning questions that will determine who wins

National Football League

Published Feb. 8, 2024 3:30 p.m. ET

With just a few days remaining until the big game, scouts have spent countless hours thoroughly examining the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs‘ rosters to see which team will have the upper hand on Sunday.

After taking some time to study the film and break down each team’s strengths and weaknesses myself, here are five burning questions heading into Super Bowl LVIII:

How will the 49ers defend the Patrick Mahomes-to-Travis Kelce connection?

Credit Niners GM John Lynch and coach Kyle Shanahan for building a defense that matches up well against the defending champions and their two-time Super Bowl MVP. The 49ers’ braintrust committed to building within the trenches, and the team’s defensive front will play a key role in neutralizing Patrick Mahomes.

As an improvisational wizard with elite arm talent and playmaking ability, Mahomes excels when playing off the script. He is known for producing big plays on scramble tosses and impromptu runs against static defenses, opting for a conservative approach. Though the 49ers excel in zone coverage behind a traditional four-man rush, the potential to connect with Travis Kelce on an assortment of free-style routes behind the hashes could drive Steve Wilks crazy by the end of the game.

The 49ers defensive coordinator must weigh the pros and cons of featuring zone coverage with “vision” on the quarterback against the potential, forcing tight-window throws against a team willing to play man-to-man on the perimeter. While Mahomes’ success against man coverage and blitzes could force Wilks to pause before dialing up excessive pressures, the connection between the Chiefs QB1 and his star tight end could create bigger problems against soft zone coverage.

Kelce has a knack for finding voids within zone coverage on extended plays, leading to jaw-dropping plays on impromptu scramble tosses. With the 49ers tasked with defending the impossible (Kelce’s freestyle routes), the unstoppable connection between a pair of future Hall of Famers could give the Chiefs the slight edge.

Can the Chiefs slow down Christian McCaffrey?

Despite the attention on Brock Purdy‘s performance, the 49ers offense begins and ends with CMC. The two-time All-Pro is a unique offensive weapon who can produce big plays inside or outside the backfield as a dynamic runner-receiver.

As the NFL leader in scrimmage yards (2,203) and rush yards (1,459), and the co-leader in total touchdowns (21), McCaffrey sets the tone for the offense. He is a rare find as a playmaker with the potential to generate explosive plays on handoffs or pitch-and-catch plays on the perimeter.

The Chiefs are well aware of CMC’s exploits as a rare member of the “100/1000” (100 receptions and 1,000 rush yards) and “1,000/1,000” (1,000 rush yards and 1,000 receiving yards) Clubs. Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo will attempt to minimize his impact with loaded boxes, timely blitzes and bracket coverage designed to take away his space as a runner and receiver. In addition, Spagnuolo will attack the quarterback with a barrage of pressures that force the 49ers to decide whether to release McCaffrey into the route or keep him in pass protection to limit the big hits on Purdy within the pocket.

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Though the blitz-heavy tactics will not prevent Shanahan from putting the ball in CMC’s hands, it could reduce the play calls on the call sheet and force the 49ers into predictable concepts (RB slow screens, flare routes and option route combinations) that could reduce his impact.

Given McCaffrey’s ridiculous production while facing a myriad of unconventional tactics designed to take the ball out of his hands, it is hard to expect the Chiefs to contain the 49ers’ top playmaker when others have failed to throughout the season.

What surprises will Andy Reid feature in his opening script?

The Chiefs have played from in front in each of their playoff wins. Reid has orchestrated the fast starts with a superb opening script that put points immediately on the board. With the fast starts enabling the Chiefs to dictate the terms, Reid’s “First 15” has played a significant role in the team’s improved play in the playoffs.

Against the 49ers, the opening script should feature a few zone busters designed to exploit the vulnerable areas of Wilks’ “Quarters” and single-high zone schemes. Whether Reid features a few dig/post concepts intended to test the discipline of a split-field safety in Quarters or calls a handful of routes with high-low targets that test the awareness of a curl/flat defender in a three-deep zone, the offensive guru will attempt to isolate and exploit an overmatched defender in space.

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In addition, Reid will undoubtedly feature a few pre-snap motions and shifts to enhance the stacked and bunch formations that are staples in the Chiefs’ playbook. The combination of pre-snap movement and cluster alignments will test the 49ers’ communication skills, adjustment discipline and adaptability.

Moreover, the organized chaos could scramble the brains of San Francisco’s defenders, leading to a blown coverage and walk-in score that flips the game’s momentum in the opening quarter. Given the impact of big plays on the emotional state of players, Reid’s opening script could set the tone for his team’s attempt to win back-to-back Super Bowls.

Will the 49ers’ defensive effort and execution improve in Super Bowl LVIII?

After watching San Francisco’s defense sleepwalk through the NFC playoff field with back-to-back subpar performances against Green Bay and Detroit, Wilks called out the unit for its “embarrassing” and “unacceptable” lack of effort.

For a defense with a stellar reputation for outhitting and outplaying the opposition, the subpar energy, enthusiasm and effort displayed pursuing ball carriers throughout the postseason leads to concerns regarding the defense’s urgency and focus. Moreover, the questionable effort suggests the 49ers defense is playing with an arrogance due to its superior talent at every level.

Do the Chiefs have a more dominant defense than the 49ers?

Though the 49ers’ lackadaisical effort has not cost them in the tournament, the Chiefs are a different animal with Mahomes at the helm. If the 49ers fail to match his effort and energy, particularly on scrambles and extended plays, the Chiefs will produce enough splash plays to create scoring chances in crucial moments.

With the Chiefs also specializing in catch-and-run plays on the perimeter (screens, crossing routes and deep overs), the 49ers’ pursuit angles and tackling skills will be tested early and often in Super Bowl LVIII. Given the lack of consistent effort and execution displayed by the 49ers in the postseason, the total number of “loafs” and missed tackles could determine whether San Francisco walks out of Allegiant Stadium with a win.

Can Kyle Shanahan finish the game like a champ?

After blowing fourth-quarter leads in Super Bowl LI as the Falcons‘ offensive coordinator and Super Bowl LIV as San Francisco’s head coach, Shanahan’s reputation as an elite coach is on the line on Sunday. The offensive wizard has been a part of epic failures on the league’s biggest and brightest stage, and the naysayers question his finishing skills after watching opponents outscore his squad 40-0 in the fourth quarter of those title tilts.

With Shanahan seemingly abandoning his run-centric approach in the crucial moments of each contest, the skeptics wonder if the guru will squander another lead. Despite his stoic responses to the tough questions surrounding the topic, Shanahan will feel the butterflies when he enters the fourth quarter based on his high-profile failures. The pain of those setbacks (and another blown lead in the 2021 NFC Championship Game) could impact his play calls as he keeps one eye on the clock, hoping his team can hang on until the time runs out.

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In addition, Shanahan must also deal with the reality of his abysmal record (1-30) when facing a deficit in the fourth quarter. Can he display the confidence, composure and poise to stick to the script when the game plan has gone awry? Will he display the creativity and foresight to make a few tactical maneuvers to help the 49ers get back on track if they fall behind late in the game?

Regardless of the situation or circumstance, Shanahan’s ability to navigate the fourth quarter will determine if he joins the exclusive VIP club of coaching legends.

Bucky Brooks is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He also breaks down the game for NFL Network and as a cohost of the “Moving the Sticks” podcast. Follow him on Twitter @BuckyBrooks.