Talk the Line: Early breakdown of NFL Week 17 odds; fishy Lions-Cowboys line
Every Sunday night, oddsmakers drop the upcoming week’s NFL betting lines, and if you are wondering if the opening spreads look accurate, we’ve got you covered.
Each week, FOX Sports Betting Analysts Geoff Schwartz, Sam Panayotovich and Jason McIntyre will break down the opening numbers in this space and point out if they think the line is too low, too high or just right.
So, without further ado, let’s jump into their analysis for Week 17, including a tough Saturday night game for America’s Team.
Sam Panayotovich: Too low
Everybody knows the Cowboys are a different monster at home in the dome. That’s why this line is where it is. Detroit’s secondary is a problem, too. Don’t be surprised if we see -7.
RELATED: Lions clinched NFC North for first time with win over Vikings. Higher stakes await
Sam Panayotovich: Too high
As maddening as the Falcons have been this season, they’re a better football team than the Bears. I already bet +3 under the impression that the line closes lower.
Geoff Schwartz: Just right
This game will be low scoring, so the seven fits where these teams are at. The Jets defense is going to force Joe Flacco into throwing them the football a few times, which will keep this game close.
Geoff Schwartz: Just right
If home field is now around two points in the NFL, this line is perfect. The Ravens get a slight bump after beating the 49ers and the oddmakers know people would love to jump on Ravens -2.5 if that line was available.
Sam Panayotovich: Just right
Assuming C.J. Stroud clears concussion protocol and doesn’t have any setbacks at practice this week, the line should climb. But playoff pressure is a real thing. Pass for me.
Sam Panayotovich: Just right
I know wise guys who will always take the Patriots at the right number because of Bill Belichick. That’ll probably be the case here, but there are better options on the board.
Sam Panayotovich: Too high
Now that Tommy DeVito’s 15 minutes of fame appear to be up, there’s a chance New York’s offense can actually be efficient with Tyrod Taylor. If temperatures drop and wind picks up closer to the weekend, sharps will bet against the Rams’ passing attack outdoors.
49ers (-13.5) @ Commanders
Jason McIntyre: Too high
The 49ers are still clearly the best team in the NFC, and they’ll win this game, but this number seems high for a team that suffered so many injuries against Baltimore.
Who will Washington start at QB?
Jason McIntyre: Too low
Another late-season outdoor game for the Cardinals, who fell behind 21-0 to the Bears last week and didn’t cover.
The Eagles obliterated the Giants in a misleading box score, yet also didn’t cover.
Saints @ Buccaneers (-3)
Jason McIntyre: Too low
The Saints hosted the Bucs earlier this season and were drubbed; now they have to go outdoors with their season on the line against the team with the longest winning streak in the NFC.
Geoff Schwartz: Too high
The Panthers are playing slightly better football lately and, despite their record, they have continued to play hard. Maybe Bryce Young is turning a corner.
The Jaguars have lost four in a row and look completely lost. Trevor Lawrence is hurting and if he plays, he’s unlikely to be that productive.
Geoff Schwartz: Just right
The Raiders beat the Chiefs while the Colts lost in Atlanta, yet this number is showing the Colts are better on a neutral field. The Colts need this game to stay in the playoff race
Geoff Schwartz: Just right
This line is giving Seattle a slight edge here, knowing that people do not trust the Steelers on the road and will look at wagering on the Seahawks in this game.
Buyer beware because Mike Tomlin is fantastic as an underdog.
Jason McIntyre: Too high
The Chargers gave a kitchen sink effort on Saturday, and will have nothing left in the tank for a trip to Denver.
But, the Broncos aren’t a team that can get margin against anyone.
Jason McIntyre: Too high
The Chiefs aren’t a good football team right now, and they don’t scare anyone with this limited offense.
RELATED: Packers survive Panthers’ rally, 33-30, to keep playoff hopes afloat
Geoff Schwartz: Too high
The Vikings can not be a favorite over any competitive team with Nick Mullens at quarterback. It’s rather entertaining, unless you’ve wagered on the Vikings, to see how Nick Mullens is handling the football.
However, the Vikings are facing a Packers defense that makes everyone look good.
Jason McIntyre is the co-host of The Herd and a FOX Sports gambling analyst, and he also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. He joined FS1 in 2016 and has appeared on every show on the network. In 2017, McIntyre began producing gambling content on the NFL, college football and NBA for FOX Sports. He had a gambling podcast for FOX, “Coming Up Winners,” in 2018 and 2019. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead, which he sold in 2010. You can find him on Twitter @JasonRMcIntyre.
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He’ll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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