Talk the Line: Early Super Bowl LVIII thoughts; Chiefs-49ers spread high

chonprasit

National Football League

Published Jan. 29, 2024 3:01 p.m. ET

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Geoff Schwartz

FOX Sports Betting Analyst

Sam Panayotovich

FOX Sports Betting Analyst

Jason McIntyre

Co-Host of THE HERD and FOX Sports Betting Analyst

The Super Bowl is finally here!

Every Sunday night, oddsmakers drop the upcoming week’s NFL betting lines, and if you are wondering if the opening spreads look accurate, we’ve got you covered.

Each week, FOX Sports Betting Analysts Geoff Schwartz, Sam Panayotovich and Jason McIntyre will break down the opening numbers in this space and point out if they think the line is too low, too high or just right.

So, without further ado, let’s jump into their early Super Bowl analysis.

49ers (-1) vs. Chiefs

This line opened San Francisco -2.5, and it took about an hour of strong Kansas City support to move to -1 in Las Vegas.

There will be ample conversation around Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid over the next two weeks, but there’s also a reason the 49ers are still favored. Maybe the Chiefs close -1 or -1.5, but this line will always be indicative of a coin flip. Barring a freak injury to either of the starting quarterbacks in practice, the number won’t sniff -3 either way.

We discussed this last week — do you trust your season-long numbers, which show that San Francisco is clearly the superior team? Or do you toss those out and say, “It’s playoff Mahomes, go against him at your own peril?” By the way, have you seen Mahomes’ straight up and against the spread numbers as an underdog?

The numbers guys don’t want to admit it, but you kind of have to toss out those season-long numbers.

The Chiefs led the NFL in drops this season, yet, they don’t have one through three playoff games!

Patrick Mahomes had the worst statistical season of his career, yet, he’s got four TDs against zero turnovers in three playoff games.

Meanwhile, Brock Purdy was in the top five in every passing category this season, but he has not been very good in two playoff games. That said, he has been outstanding in the clutch.

I don’t want to bet against Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid here, but I do think San Francisco will win the game.

Props will be the way to go — but maybe teasing the 49ers and the under is a way to get in on the side.

I understand the power ratings for these teams makes this a game where the Niners opened at 2.5 before settling in as a one-point favorite.

If you throw out the regular season, which feels appropriate given how the Chiefs have looked for three weeks, you’d make the Chiefs a favorite in this game.

The 49ers might have the playoff record for the least number of minutes with the lead for any Super Bowl participant in history. They have issues on defense and a quarterback who’s not terribly trustworthy for 60 minutes.

Jason McIntyre is the co-host of The Herd and a FOX Sports gambling analyst, and he also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. He joined FS1 in 2016 and has appeared on every show on the network. In 2017, McIntyre began producing gambling content on the NFL, college football and NBA for FOX Sports. He had a gambling podcast for FOX, “Coming Up Winners,” in 2018 and 2019. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead, which he sold in 2010. You can find him on Twitter @JasonRMcIntyre.

Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He’ll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.

Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.