Texans’ C.J. Stroud flashing early signs he can be a franchise QB

National Football League

Published Sep. 20, 2023 6:29 p.m. ET

It’s still very early in the 2023 season. Entering Week 3, we’re a far cry from having the evidence necessary to make statements of absolutes.

This appears clear, though: C.J. Stroud has what it takes to be the Texans‘ next franchise quarterback.

Despite Houston’s 0-2 start, Stroud has proven worthy of being the No. 2 overall pick. He has completed 63.7% of his passes for 626 yards and two touchdowns with no interceptions and a 91.2 passer rating. His 58 completions through his first two career games ranks second in NFL history to the Bengals‘ Joe Burrow (60, 2020). The 21-year-old Stroud is also the only quarterback in league history to attempt at least 80 passes without a pick in his first two games.

What makes Stroud’s upside especially tantalizing is what he has been able to do when the Texans adequately protect him.

Next Gen Stats’ passing score metric measures a quarterback’s execution on every pass attempt. On plays he hasn’t been pressured, Stroud has the league’s second-highest NGS passing score (91) and total Expected Points Added (27.7), the latter of which measures how each play potentially affects the score of the game relative to the situation, per Next Gen Stats.

In Sunday’s loss to the Colts, when not pressured, Stroud had a 78.6% completion rate (22-of-28) for 287 yards and two touchdowns, 10.3 yards per attempt and a 133.2 passer rating.

“C.J. is a very good processor. Smart quarterback,” Texans coach DeMeco Ryans said Monday. “He’s not going to make the same mistake twice. That’s one thing I like about him. He knows his mistakes. He knows how to correct them on the fly. It’s just encouraging when you see a young player, a rookie quarterback, who is able to make steps in the right direction. He’s able to progress, he’s able to grow within games. He’s seeing our pass game, where he got pressure and held on to the ball a little too long and he comes back and he makes the right decision with the football.

“This kid is made of all the right stuff,” Ryans continued. “Our team is happy to have him on board. We just have to play better complementary football around him.”

Houston’s issue, of course, has been protecting its quarterback.

Stroud has faced the third-highest pressure rate through two games at 44.4%, per NGS. He’s been sacked a league-high 11 times. The Texans on Sunday were without four starting offensive linemen — left tackle Laremy Tunsil, left guard Kenyon Green, center Juice Scruggs and right tackle Tytus Howard. Tunsil is the only one of those four not on injured reserve — he missed Week 2 with a knee injury — and Green is on season-ending IR with a shoulder issue. Howard (hand) and Scruggs (hamstring) aren’t eligible to return until Week 5.

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The offensive-line issues have also hurt second-year tailback Dameon Pierce and the run game, which could take pressure off Stroud. Houston is league-worst in yards per carry (2.5) and yards before contact per carry (-0.2), according to Next Gen Stats.

Stroud has flashed promise despite the problems around him.

The decisiveness, anticipatory throws and terrific ball placement football observers saw at Ohio State have shown up in spurts with the Texans. His play has helped elevate a pass-catching corps that is underwhelming by on paper. Houston wide receivers have 40 receptions for 509 yards entering Week 3, ranking second in the NFL in both categories, according to NGS. Third-year pro Nico Collins, who has emerged as the Texans’ lead receiver after having injury issues in 2022, currently ranks fifth in the NFL with 226 receiving yards, including a league-leading 183 on in-breaking routes, according to Next Gen Stats.

“For the quarterback position, I think it’s a matter of you’ve got certain looks that you’ve scouted throughout the week and then there are things that are going to show up in the games that you haven’t seen,” Ryans said. “How are you able to adjust and adapt on the fly when things are different from what you prepared for? How are you reacting to what you’re seeing? That’s what he does a really good job of: reacting and making plays on the fly.”

By no means has Stroud been perfect. Ball security has been an early issue with the hits he’s taken. He has three fumbles, including two lost, second-most in the league. A couple of his throwaways have been nearly picked off, too.

But no one expected him to be perfect. He’s a rookie quarterback on a rebuilding team. There will be bumps and bruises.

Early on, though, there’s no question that he’s on track to be a future star.

“I feel like he’s just showing it all in front of us,” receiver Robert Woods said Monday. “The first game, he made a lot of plays. The second game, he really improved and made a lot of plays. He’s just growing, and we’ll see a lot more growth in Week 3 and the whole rest of his rookie season.

“I think he’s going to be a great quarterback in this league.”

Ben Arthur is the AFC South reporter for FOX Sports. He previously worked for The Tennessean/USA TODAY Network, where he was the Titans beat writer for a year and a half. He covered the Seattle Seahawks for SeattlePI.com for three seasons (2018-20) prior to moving to Tennessee. You can follow Ben on Twitter at @benyarthur.