Texans still have playoff opportunity, but loss against Jaguars exposed flaws
After the Texans‘ heartbreaker Sunday against the Jaguars, a reporter asked coach DeMeco Ryans how the team could make sure the loss — one which dropped Houston to third in the AFC South and out of a playoff spot — doesn’t spiral.
He kept the message simple.
“There’s no magic that’s just going to happen,” Ryans said. “Nobody is going to show up and help. It’s just about our guys stepping up and executing in the moment. That’s the message to our guys.”
It’s a fair message. There’s no reason to panic. The postseason remains a strong possibility for the resurgent Texans (6-5), who still have a 61% chance of making the playoffs, according to the New York Times playoff simulator. Their remaining opponents, including the division-rival Titans twice, have a 31-35 combined record (.469 winning percentage). But the Jaguars game exposed their flaws.
The biggest one? The run game. The Texans’ rushing attack had produced in the previous two weeks, with Devin Singletary — assuming RB1 responsibilities with starter Dameon Pierce sidelined with an ankle injury — registering a league-high 262 rushing yards in that span. But Jacksonville held Singletary and Pierce, who returned, to just 32 yards on 2.9 rushing yards per carry. Houston had just 91 rushing yards for the game overall, its worst mark since Week 9.
The results aligned with a larger trend for Houston this season: its inability to find rushing success against above-average run defenses, which becomes paramount late in the season.
In the five games the Texans had at least 100 rushing yards, each of them came against defenses that ranked in the bottom third of the league in terms of stopping the run — 188 vs. Cincinnati (29th), 139 vs. Pittsburgh (22nd), 120 vs. New Orleans (23rd), 111 vs. Arizona (30th) and 110 vs. Carolina (24th). Houston averaged just 69.6 rushing yards per game in its other six contests, five of which came against teams ranking in the top half of the league for run defense — Baltimore (11th), Atlanta (16th), Tampa Bay (9th) and Jacksonville (4th), whom it has played twice.
Rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud’s greatness has transcended the run-game issues at times, but the Texans are 2-4 when they rush for fewer than 100 yards. They’re 4-1 when they’ve surpassed the mark.
Losing standout offensive lineman Tytus Howard — he’ll reportedly miss the rest of the season with a knee injury suffered Sunday — could make running the ball more difficult down the stretch. The Texans will face above-average run defenses in three of their final six games: against the Browns (12th) and Titans twice (15th).
Coverage has also been an area of inconsistency for the Texans.
They gave up four pass plays of 40-plus yards in the loss to the Jaguars, which led to 17 points. It marked just the second time this season that a team has had four plays go for at least 40 yards (rushes or receptions), joining the Dolphins who had five in their 70-20 rout of the Broncos in Week 3, according to Sportsradar. So that doesn’t reflect well on Houston.
The Texans are tied for third in passing touchdowns allowed (11), but they rank 27th in passing yards allowed, 23rd in passer rating allowed when targeted and 26th in pass defense DVOA, according to FTN data.
While most of their remaining opponents don’t appear threatening in the passing game, Houston could get a challenge against Denver, which has caught fire with Russell Wilson and tied for a league-high five-game winning streak. Since Week 7, the start of the Broncos’ streak, they’re third in completion rate (71.6%) and fourth in passer rating (109.5), according to Next Gen Stats.
It’s a game that could have large postseason implications too, with Denver (6-5) also in the AFC wild-card picture, a spot behind Houston in the ninth spot.
“For us, when it comes to pass rush and creating more pressure, it starts first with our coverage,” Ryans said Monday. “Our rush and coverage is tied together. Feel like we can be better in coverage, giving our pass rush more time to get there. So we can execute better in all phases.
“We have to fix us,” he added. “We have to play better. We have to execute better. It really doesn’t matter who the opponent is if we don’t clean up our house first.”
Ben Arthur is the AFC South reporter for FOX Sports. He previously worked for The Tennessean/USA TODAY Network, where he was the Titans beat writer for a year and a half. He covered the Seattle Seahawks for SeattlePI.com for three seasons (2018-20) prior to moving to Tennessee. You can follow Ben on Twitter at @benyarthur.
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