USC vs. Colorado: Prediction, odds, picks
A pair of the nation’s best passing offenses square off when the No. 8 USC Trojans (4-0) take college football’s third-ranked passing offense into a matchup with the Colorado Buffaloes (3-1), who have the fifth-ranked passing offense, on Saturday, September 30.
USC is a massive, 21.5-point favorite, but that hasn’t stopped bettors from backing Colorado heavily in this one!
The Trojans’ last game was versus the Arizona State Sun Devils, and they won by a score of 42-28. Against the Oregon Ducks in their most recent contest, the Buffaloes lost 42-6.
Here’s everything you need from a betting perspective on the game between USC and Colorado, from the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and an expert pick from Geoff Schwartz.
USC vs. Colorado Game Information & Odds
- When: Saturday, September 30, 2023 at 12:00 PM ET
- Location: Folsom Field in Boulder, Colorado
- TV: FOX
- Live boxscore on FOX Sports
| Favorite | Spread (Odds) | Favorite Moneyline | Underdog Moneyline | Total | Over Moneyline | Under Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USC | -21.5 (-110) | -1489 | +823 | 73.5 | -110 | -110 |
USC vs. Colorado Prediction
- Pick ATS: Colorado (+21.5)
- Pick OU: Under (73.5)
- Prediction: USC 38, Colorado 32
Learn more about the USC Trojans vs. the Colorado Buffaloes game on FOX Sports!
Pick via FOX Sports Betting Analyst Geoff Schwartz
I struggle with this game because I want to wager on the Buffaloes to cover. They are coming off an embarrassing loss to Oregon, and we’ve watched enough football to know teams bounce back the week after a national TV loss like the one Colorado suffered. However, the matchup against USC isn’t the opportunity for a bounce back.
What USC does well is what Colorado does poorly. The Trojans defense is still suspect after the front four, and Shedeur Sanders will be able to find more space in the defense to complete passes. But if he doesn’t have time because USC’s defensive line gets to the quarterback, then the Buffs’ passing game will be non-existent again. USC can allow chunk rushing plays because its defense can have gap-integrity issues, but I’m fearful Colorado’s rushing attack won’t be able to exploit those issues.
On the other side of the ball, USC will score points without any resistance from the Colorado defense. The Buffs’ defense has played two offenses ranked 85th or better in efficiency. It allowed 42 to TCU, and that included two red zone interceptions by the Horned Frogs. It allowed 42 to Oregon, and the Ducks pulled their starters in the fourth quarter. USC has scored 56, 66, 56 and 42.
USC is going to score in the 50s against Colorado, and that is what I’m going to wager on: USC to score over 48.5 points in this game.
PICK: USC team total Over 48.5 points scored
USC vs. Colorado Betting Insights
- Based on the spread and over/under, the implied score for the tilt is Trojans 48, Buffaloes 26.
- The Trojans have a 93.7% chance to win this game based on the moneyline’s implied probability. The Buffaloes hold a 10.8% implied probability.
- USC has won two games against the spread this season.
- Colorado has covered twice in four matchups with a spread this season.
USC vs. Colorado: Head-to-Head
- In their past two head-to-head contests, USC has taken down Colorado two times.
- The last two times the Trojans have squared off with the Buffaloes, they have a 2-0 record against the spread. The scoring has gone over the total on one occasion.
- Colorado has been outscored by 61 points in its last two tilts against USC.
USC vs. Colorado: 2023 Stats Comparison
| USC | Colorado | |
|---|---|---|
| Off. Points per Game (Rank) | 55.0 (1) | 32.5 (54) |
| Def. Points per Game (Rank) | 20.0 (46) | 33.3 (110) |
| Turnovers Allowed (Rank) | 2 (3) | 4 (30) |
| Turnovers Forced (Rank) | 6 (54) | 8 (18) |
USC 2023 Key Players
| Name | Position | Stats |
|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams | QB | 1,200 YDS (73.5%) / 15 TD / 0 INT 71 RUSH YDS / 3 RUSH TD / 17.8 RUSH YPG |
| Brenden Rice | WR | 12 REC / 257 YDS / 5 TD / 64.3 YPG |
| Tahj Washington | WR | 10 REC / 278 YDS / 4 TD / 69.5 YPG |
| MarShawn Lloyd | RB | 349 YDS / 2 TD / 87.3 YPG / 8.9 YPC 4 REC / 67 REC YDS / 0 REC TD / 16.8 REC YPG |
| Solomon Byrd | DE | 9 TKL / 2.0 TFL / 4.5 SACK |
| Jaylin Smith | S | 20 TKL / 3.0 TFL |
| Jamil Muhammad | DE | 8 TKL / 2.0 TFL / 3.0 SACK |
| Romello Height | DE | 5 TKL / 3.0 TFL / 2.0 SACK |
Colorado 2023 Key Players
| Name | Position | Stats |
|---|---|---|
| Shedeur Sanders | QB | 1,410 YDS (76.9%) / 11 TD / 1 INT -93 RUSH YDS / 1 RUSH TD / -23.3 RUSH YPG |
| Xavier Weaver | WR | 34 REC / 461 YDS / 2 TD / 115.3 YPG |
| Dylan Edwards | RB | 157 YDS / 1 TD / 39.3 YPG / 5.6 YPC 17 REC / 169 REC YDS / 3 REC TD / 42.3 REC YPG |
| Jimmy Horn Jr. | WR | 27 REC / 243 YDS / 2 TD / 60.8 YPG |
| Trevor Woods | S | 25 TKL / 0.0 TFL / 2 INT / 3 PD |
| Shilo Sanders | S | 26 TKL / 0.0 TFL / 1 INT / 1 PD |
| Cam’Ron Silmon | S | 17 TKL / 1.0 TFL / 1.0 SACK / 2 INT |
| Jordan Domineck | OLB | 15 TKL / 5.0 TFL / 2.0 SACK |
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