What will it take for Jaguars to reach multi-year deal with Josh Allen?

National Football League

Updated Feb. 21, 2024 11:20 a.m. ET

At his end-of-season press conference last month, Jaguars general manager Trent Baalke acknowledged that contract negotiations with soon-to-be free agent Josh Allen hadn’t even started yet. But when asked about the star edge rusher’s future in Jacksonville, Baalke left no room for misinterpretation.

“Josh will be a Jaguar,” Baalke said.

The definitiveness of his response spoke to Allen’s value to the Jags. He’s the face of the defense. He’s their most important player not named Trevor Lawrence. And considering his standing among the best at a premium position, Allen is arguably their best player.

If Baalke can’t bring Allen back, he risks angering the locker room and sending the wrong message to homegrown players at a time when many would argue the GM’s job security is already on rocky ground, considering the Jaguars’ 2023 collapse.

So if losing Allen is not an option, what could his second contract look like?

What we know is that Allen cemented top-tier pass rusher money with a breakout 2023. He set a single-season franchise record with 17.5 sacks, to go with 33 quarterback hits, 17 tackles for loss, two forced fumbles and an interception. He also ranked second in the league with 96 pressures, according to Next Gen Stats.

His second deal figures to slot somewhere between that of the Bears‘ Montez Sweat ($24.5 million in average annual value) and 49ers superstar Nick Bosa ($34 million).

Through five seasons, the 26-year-old Allen has more sacks (45), quarterback hits (103), tackles for loss (53) and pressures (318) than Sweat, who signed his extension with Chicago in November shortly after being acquired from Washington. But Bosa’s numbers are better than Allen’s across the board. The 2022 AP Defensive Player of the Year, Bosa became the highest-paid non-quarterback in NFL history when he signed his extension with San Francisco last September.

Allen’s camp would be justified to push for $30 million per year, but he might end up in the range of the Chargers‘ Joey Bosa and the Steelers‘ T.J. Watt, who make $27 million and $28 million per year, respectively.

“What I’ve grown to understand is that the NFL is a business at the end of the day,” Allen said at the Pro Bowl earlier this month, via The Florida Times-Union. “If you handle it or think about it any type of way, you will get tossed out of it. For me, it’s ‘Let’s talk business.'”

From the Jaguars’ perspective, it makes the most sense to use the non-exclusive franchise tag on Allen to prevent him from hitting the open market as they negotiate. The franchise tag tender for outside linebackers is expected to be $22.7 million, according to Overthecap.com. Jacksonville has between Tuesday at 4 p.m. ET and March 5 to apply the tender. The team used it on tight end Evan Engram last year before eventually agreeing to terms on a multi-year extension.

The likelihood that Allen gets the tag could complicate the return of receiver Calvin Ridley, who’s also set to be a free agent. Due to the parameters of the 2022 trade with the Falcons that landed Ridley with Jacksonville, the team would give up a second-round pick if it extends Ridley’s contract. It would give up only a third-rounder if it signs him after the start of the new league year, because that would be a free-agency signing and not an extension. But Ridley’s value could balloon on the open market, making it harder to strike a deal with the veteran receiver.

The Jags would obviously prefer to keep both. But if Ridley leaving means Allen staying, it’s a pill worth swallowing. The latter is more important to the fabric of the team. The defense goes how Allen goes.

The team went 5-0 last season when he had at least two sacks.

“I know Josh wants to be here. I know we want him here,” Baalke said. “Can we come to a number that works for everybody? That’s the key.

“Like I said last year with Evan’s situation, you got to respect these guys that put themselves in this position,” he added. “They work hard, they deserve to make good money. What that good means to them could be different than what it means to us. We just got to come together, sit down at the table and work things out.”

Ben Arthur is the AFC South reporter for FOX Sports. He previously worked for The Tennessean/USA TODAY Network, where he was the Titans beat writer for a year and a half. He covered the Seattle Seahawks for SeattlePI.com for three seasons (2018-20) prior to moving to Tennessee. You can follow Ben on Twitter at @benyarthur.