Why Bills moving on from Stefon Diggs would make (almost) no sense

National Football League

Updated Jan. 30, 2024 12:19 p.m. ET

Buffalo Bills receiver Stefon Diggs isn’t going anywhere — unless he experiences an about-face and demands a trade. He can change his mind. We’ve seen Diggs go through big emotional shifts in the past both in Buffalo and in Minnesota.

But at this point, the union between the Bills, Josh Allen and Diggs makes too much sense. And moreover, it’s too difficult to break apart.

In terms of assessing where Diggs and the Bills are currently, it’s fairly clear. He’s happy enough. He made at least one indication that he was discontented with his role, which dwindled after the Bills made a switch at offensive coordinator in mid-November, replacing Ken Dorsey with Joe Brady. The team promoted Brady from his interim role into the real deal on Sunday.

But it’s one thing for Diggs to be discontented. It’s another thing for him to be so angry that the situation is beyond repair.

“It’s rough,” Diggs said on Dec. 14 when asked about the immense defensive attention he was drawing. “I’ve been trying. I promise you I’ve been trying. It’s not because of me, but defenses are doing a good job. We’ve just got to continue to make plays and spread the ball. We’ve been winning so far. In a perfect world, I want to have the ball. I want success and they be winning games. … Hopefully we get some things rolling.”

He added: “It’s frustrating. I’ve got to do a lot of this right to get open and then a lot of things have to go right to get me the ball.”

Buffalo’s coaches have to accept fault for Diggs’ inexplicable drop in usage. And they have to figure out how to make it right next season. But first, let’s entertain the possibility that Buffalo and Diggs are bound for a separation.

What might happen if the Bills parted ways with Diggs

If Buffalo feels the situation with its star receiver has come to an end, it has two options. First, the Bills can release him outright with a June-1 designation. That frees up $18 million in salary cap space ahead of free agency and the draft. The Bills are currently projected to be $43 million over the cap. So by releasing Diggs, they won’t suddenly free up enough cap space to start spending. But it will help them preserve much of the roster as it currently stands. (This move feels particularly insane given how valuable Diggs can be to any roster, including Buffalo’s.)

If the Bills cut him because they thought they could simply find a better way to spend $18 million — which likely wouldn’t get them any of the top receivers on the market — they would likely be sorely mistaken. Unless he’s a locker room cancer, which he isn’t. Josh Allen loves Diggs.

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The other option? The Bills could trade him. It would make the most sense financially for them to move Diggs after June 1. But what’s the point of trading someone after June 1? By then, the draft and free agency would have come and gone.

Trading him before that, however, would incur $3.2 million in additional cap hit. In other words, trading him only makes the Bills’ salary cap situation worse. But I suppose that if the offer were good enough — a package with at least one first-round pick — then the Bills might consider it. But again, how can they expect rookies to compensate for Diggs’ departure? The transaction doesn’t make sense.

Surely, teams would be interested. Diggs’ salary is $18.5 million in 2024 and $18 million in 2025. That’s a good deal, even if Diggs is on the wrong end of the aging curve. (He’s 30 and entering his 10th NFL season.) That puts him in the same annual range as the contracts for Tyler Lockett and Keenan Allen.

To part ways with Diggs, the Bills would have to be convinced of at least one of the following things.

1) Diggs’ play and/or behavior is declining so quickly that he won’t be worth the money in the immediate future.

2) Diggs’ play isn’t essential to the offense anymore.

3) There will be other options on the market (perhaps at receiver and perhaps not) that will provide more utility to the roster than Diggs could.

4) Draft picks are worth more to Buffalo than Diggs, and the Bills offense proved it could survive without him as its top producer.

That’s not how I see it, which is why I think it’s important to stress…

What might happen if the Bills keep Diggs

One thing is certain: The Bills weren’t getting what they wanted out of Diggs during the final stretch of the season. And it’s easy to imagine Diggs wanted to do more.

In the team’s divisional-round loss to the Chiefs, Diggs had three catches for 21 yards.

That’s right, in the team’s most important game of the year — a loss — the Bills could figure out how to get only 21 yards out of their top option. It wasn’t much discussed because he had a few games like that during the second half of the regular season. But make no mistake: It felt like a problem for Buffalo’s offense. Diggs did not speak to reporters after the game, nor did he meet with the media during the end-of-season press conferences.

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It will be on Brady to figure out why the Bills couldn’t get Diggs the ball. From Weeks 11 to 18, when Brady served as coordinator, Diggs saw his snap count, target total and counting stats plummet. Here’s what the splits looked like, via FOX Sports research.

Weeks 1-10

Snap percentage: 86.9% of team’s offensive snaps
Targets: 10.2 per game
Receptions: 7.3
Receiving yards: 86.8
Receiving TDs: .7

Weeks 11-Playoffs

Snap percentage: 77.3% of the team’s offensive snaps
Targets: 8.3
Receptions: 4.8
Receiving yards: 43.1
Receiving TDs: .1

Now here’s the question: Does his usage have something to do with his caliber of play?

More colloquially, is Stef washed?

“Stef’s, he’s a No. 1 receiver. I firmly believe that, not wavering off of that,” Bills general manager Brandon Beane said after the season. “Listen, we have to continue to put weapons out there to keep teams from bracketing him or, you know, locking him down in different ways to take him away. They know you are going to want him. Stef can still play. I’m sure he would love to have that deep ball again. He’d be the first to tell you. He’s super competitive, he’s going to work his tail off this offseason. I know there’s various reasons or questions on this or his production, all that, but I still see Stef as a No. 1 receiver.”

Diggs’ yards after the catch over expected are roughly where he sits during his career. He’s at .3 yards per reception — not great compared to .8 in 2022, but similar to what he did in 2021 (.2) and 2020 (.1). He’s not really a YAC player. He’s a guy who separates.

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In 2023, his separation yards sat at 2.8 per route targeted, the same as his stat in that category in 2022 (2.8). In 2021, he was at 2.7. And in 2020, his average sat at 3. Diggs’ PFF grade for 2023 (81.1) was the lowest he’s had with the Bills — just a hair below his 2021 grade (82.1).

Here’s the interesting kicker: Diggs’ separation while targeted was 2.78 under Brady and 2.68 under Dorsey during the 2023 season. So, if anything, Diggs might have played better under Brady. Of course, we don’t know what his separation looked like when he was not targeted. That’s an important detail.

But it doesn’t feel like Diggs’ quality of play is suddenly declining, even if he is 30 years old. It feels much more likely the decline has to do with his coordinator. Brady needs to figure out how to fix his most glaring mistake.

The onus falls back on the OC to get the most out of a weapon that 31 teams would die to have.

It was nice that Brady figured out how to get the offense firing without Diggs. But they will be a better offense when Diggs is more heavily involved. It’s that simple.

The Bills were probably overly reliant on Diggs with Dorsey. They were definitely under reliant on the star receiver with Brady in charge. It’s time for Brady, Diggs and the Bills to find a happy medium.

Prior to joining FOX Sports as the AFC East reporter, Henry McKenna spent seven years covering the Patriots for USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Boston Globe Media. Follow him on Twitter at @henrycmckenna.