Why Orioles won the trade deadline and should be World Series favorites, per John Smoltz

Major League Baseball

Published Jul. 31, 2024 4:23 p.m. ET

The deadline came and went, and most of the difference-making names being discussed ended up staying put. That’s the case with Tarik Skubal in Detroit, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette in Toronto, Mason Miller and Brent Rooker in Oakland and Luis Robert Jr. and Garrett Crochet in Chicago. That last name was especially interesting.

In addition to the number of innings he has thrown, it’s possible that Crochet’s reported desire to get an extension before he pitched for another team in October could have made clubs a bit more hesitant to trade for the White Sox standout.

In our weekly conversation with MLB on FOX analyst John Smoltz, the Hall of Fame pitcher shared his thoughts on Crochet’s request, his trade winners and whether the action at the deadline changed his viewpoint on baseball’s top contenders.

Kavner: Who were your biggest winners and losers from the deadline among the contenders?

Smoltz: There were a lot of good moves. I was really surprised by the activity around the league. Like you said, maybe not some of the biggest ones, but I’ll tell you what Baltimore did a bang-up job. They address just about every need they could. That’s got to be an encouraging sign for their fan base to improve their bullpen like they did, to pick up another start, to pick up another slugger, I just think Baltimore won, in my opinion, they won the quantity of trades to really help out. A big splash is going to be the New York Yankees and Jazz Chisholm, and the fact that he’s done what he’s done is already incredible. Jazz is an electrifying player.

The Dodgers, of course, went ahead and made a bunch of moves, and not because they can, but because they needed to, so it’s going to be very interesting to see how that shifts the gears of powers to be. Houston went and got probably one of the most dynamic left-handed pitchers, and they’re in a nice position. So, look, you could definitely tell in the trade market which teams played neutral and most of them did, and which teams made moves to really signify that they’re putting all efforts toward going to the World Series.

Which team do you think might regret not doing more to address some of their starting pitching?

The Braves are in a very tough spot. You could easily see them return next year when they get healthy. How much were they willing to sacrifice given the tough spot that they’re in with all the injuries. They’ve got a ton of injuries so they tried to go offensive. The Braves could have added a starting pitcher, too, but maybe not really. They were in a really tough place because when they return healthy next year, they’re going to be one of the favorites again.

Now, if they can squeak in and get in there and make some noise, maybe some of those guys get healthy. Maybe there was just a couple teams that you look at and go, “Did they miss the boat?” And because the big markets went so heavy, I think it was tougher for some of these other markets to make that move.

We saw Garrett Crochet communicate through back channels that maybe he wouldn’t pitch in October without an extension, which might have played a role in him staying put. What did you think about that?

To be fair, I understand what he’s doing, and I understand with this epidemic of injuries and guys not getting paid. Could you have done it a little bit more politically soundly? Maybe, but I’m not going to fault a guy for being max to the effort of his innings, under control, no real leverage. I feet like at the end of the day, I can’t blame them, I really can’t.

I just think times are different now, and we’re asking players to drink the Kool-Aid of every front office, and then when it comes time to taking care of that person who drinks the Kool-Aid, they’re not doing it, for the most part. They’re doing it for the elite, but they’re not doing it. So, honestly, I think most people might think I would react differently to that, but I pitched in a different era, and we got rewarded handsomely for pitching and that’s not the case now, so I really don’t blame the young man.

Post-deadline, who is the favorite in the American League, and has it changed from before?

Yes. I liked Baltimore before the year started, but injuries to their pitching staff decimated them, put them in a more vulnerable position. I like them again now, to be the team that represents the East. It’s going to be a great battle with the Yankees. Both teams are going to be in the postseason and depending on how it shakes out, both teams could end up playing for the right to win the World Series. The fact that Houston’s back in the mix we’ve got five top-heavy teams now in the American League that legitimately can make their case for having an advantage in an area of their ballclub.

The Guardians know that from the sixth inning on, this game’s over, they win. The Baltimore Orioles can slug, they now can pitch. The New York Yankees can slug, their offense got long again. Can they pitch enough to win the division? The Houston Astros just are the Houston Astros. That’s not leaving out Seattle. Seattle made some really good moves. I like what they did. They’ve got a chance to score more now. If they score, they win — period. I mean, they just don’t score enough. That’s why they have the droughts that they have.

Were you surprised that the Guardians didn’t do more at the deadline given the position they’re in near the top of the American League?

I think the Guardians are who they are. They’re considered a small-market team that builds off of a base that might not have the resources some other teams do, and they just keep surprising people. They’re becoming kind of like the Midwest Tampa Bay Rays in how they develop pitching. They got a couple of groups of positions they build around, but I’m not surprised they didn’t do a lot, because I don’t know how much they have to give to do a lot.

They are surprising everybody. They are a very, very good baseball team and I think they can go on this way, with the strength that I mentioned in their bullpen, and go all the way to the playoffs without missing a beat.

John Smoltz, a first-ballot Baseball Hall of Famer, eight-time All-Star and National League Cy Young Award winner, is FOX MLB’s lead game analyst. In addition to calling the network’s marquee regular-season games, Smoltz is in the booth for the All-Star Game and a full slate of postseason matchups which include Division Series, League Championship Series and World Series assignments.

Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.

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