Yankees-Dodgers: Better offense? Better pitching? 2024 World Series predictions
Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto were the three best hitters in baseball this year. Mookie Betts, an MVP front-runner before being beset by injury, has found his superstar swing in the postseason.
The Dodgers‘ pitching staff already posted a record-tying 33 innings without allowing a run this October. The Yankees have surrendered three runs or fewer in five of their past seven games.
These are the two best teams in baseball, and they represent a historical and heavyweight matchup in the Fall Classic. So, who’s going to win, and how?
For that, FOX Sports MLB experts Deesha Thosar and Rowan Kavner preview and predict the 2024 World Series in this week’s roundtable.
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2024 World Series predictions
1. Who has the better offense?
Thosar: Any comparison between these two teams is splitting hairs, but I’ll give the edge to the Yankees because Giancarlo Stanton is back to turning into Babe Ruth in the postseason. Stanton’s clutch power combined with Juan Soto’s confidence at the plate in high-pressure situations and Aaron Judge’s threat to reach base in every plate appearance makes the Yankees a force that is difficult to overcome for any pitching staff, let alone Los Angeles’ questionable arms.
The Yankees also have better depth in their lineup right now than they did for parts of the regular season, thanks to Gleyber Torres‘ excellent leadoff production (he and Judge both have seven walks this postseason) and Anthony Volpe taking better at-bats. On the flip side, the Dodgers overall have more depth in their lineup, with the bottom of the order being tough to navigate if guys like Max Muncy, Will Smith and Kiké Hernández are routinely coming through. But I still think the Yankees’ top hitters give them the ever-so-slight advantage here.
Kavner: The Dodgers. It doesn’t get better than the 1-2 punch of Juan Soto and Aaron Judge, and Giancarlo Stanton is blasting home runs seemingly every day this October, but the depth of the Dodgers’ lineup gives L.A. the edge as a whole. Kiké Hernández continues to find a new level this time of year, Tommy Edman just had more hits and RBIs than any player in the LCS, Max Muncy recently set a single-season postseason record by reaching base in 12 straight plate appearances, and the Dodgers scored an NLCS record 46 runs despite Teoscar Hernández going hitless in the first five games, Will Smith hitting .182 in the series and Freddie Freeman missing two of the last three games.
I haven’t even mentioned Shohei Ohtani and Mookie Betts, who combined for 17 hits — including eight extra-base hits — and 15 runs in the NLCS. The Dodgers had the highest OPS in MLB this season, and if there were any questions about which lineup was the scariest in the postseason field, they answered it this October. Most importantly, they’re batting .311 with runners in scoring position in the playoffs; the Yankees are hitting .181 in those situations.
2. Who has better pitching?
Kavner: The Yankees. Their starting pitching advantage mitigates any edge the Dodgers hold in the bullpen. One team will need to resort to at least one bullpen game. The other team’s fourth starter is an American League Rookie of the Year candidate. The Yankees will trot out last year’s Cy Young Award winner in Game 1. The Dodgers will turn to Jack Flaherty, who is coming off an outing in which he dealt with diminished velocity — which was a problem late in the year as well — and surrendered eight runs in three innings. Despite some encouraging signs from Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who was at his best earlier this year in the Bronx, the Yankees will arguably hold the upper hand in every starting pitching matchup this series.
The Dodgers have managed to get by despite up-and-down performances from each of their three starting pitchers — the way Yamamoto and Walker Buehler missed bats their last time out was especially encouraging — mostly because of a medley of relievers who at one point helped the club tie a postseason record with 33 consecutive scoreless innings. But the Dodgers’ scarcity of arms have forced manager Dave Roberts to make tough decisions, including punting on games when they get behind so as not to burn the high-leverage relievers they know they’ll need over the course of a long series. That’s a tough tightrope to walk, even for a team that can put up runs the way the Dodgers can. At some point in this series, they will likely need a lengthy performance from one of their starters — like the one Flaherty was able to deliver in Game 1 of the NLCS — to be the last team standing.
Thosar: The Yankees. Gerrit Cole is the best pitcher in the World Series, and the rotation arms behind him have been more encouraging than I expected going into the postseason. Carlos Rodón showed enormous growth between playoff starts, being able to contain his emotions and focus on just dealing, which led to solid results. Now, with Nestor Cortes likely coming back from injury, that gives the Yankees another left-handed weapon, most likely from the bullpen.
But out of all the factors here, I think what gives the Yankees the pitching advantage is simply that they do not have to rely on a bullpen game or two to get through a long series. There is something to be said about having big-name starters who can pitch deep into their outings, especially in the playoffs. And Yoshinobu Yamamoto is still working his way back up from injury, Jack Flaherty experienced a drop in velocity his last time out, and Walker Buehler can be turbulent depending on the day. The Dodgers’ bullpen was overused in the NLCS against the Mets. I think that might come back to haunt them.
3. Which manager is under more pressure to win this title?
Thosar: They’re both under pressure to win, but I think Aaron Boone is facing more of a burden since the Yankees haven’t won a World Series under his management, and not since 2009 overall. Consequently, this postseason has actually featured Boone’s best decision-making over his seven trips to the playoffs as Yankees skipper.
Boone, too, seemed to understand how much pressure he was facing to win a title this year because he made sure to spend ample time in spring training with former Yankees manager Joe Torre, who won the World Series four times with the Bronx Bombers. Boone said this week that he leaned on Torre a lot this year, and he has tried to emulate some of Torre’s demeanor in the dugout, as well as better understand his managing tactics.
Kavner: I lean Aaron Boone here, although there are a lot of parallels between the two beyond the fact that Boone and Dave Roberts both grew up in Southern California, concurrently attended rival colleges in USC and UCLA, respectively, and had defining moments as players in the postseason. They both have also been criticized for their team’s shortcomings in postseasons past, and both have done a tremendous job to quiet those critics this October.
In different circumstances, I might go with Roberts. A third straight NLDS knockout would have raised the alarms. But considering the job he did piecing together a beleaguered pitching staff to get to this point — seemingly pushing all the right buttons in the process — and how vital it is for the Yankees to strike now while they have Juan Soto, I think the answer is Boone.
4. Which team has a greater need for a big series from their 2024 MVP: the Dodgers with Shohei Ohtani or the Yankees with Aaron Judge?
Kavner: TheYankees. I mentioned that I don’t think their lineup is as deep, which puts more pressure on Judge to perform. He had some big moments in the ALCS, including homers in Games 2 and 3, but I don’t think the Yankees can survive without more production from the likely runaway AL MVP against a Dodgers team with far more offensive firepower than anything New York has seen thus far.
Thosar: It’s hard to imagine either of these teams winning the championship without big performances from their respective MVPs. But the way the Yankees have been winning this postseason, even when Judge wasn’t putting up the insane numbers we’ve been used to seeing from him, makes me think the Dodgers have a greater need for Ohtani to show up big in the World Series. The Japanese phenom ended the narrative that he could only hit with men on base when he launched a leadoff home run in Game 4 of the NLCS, and he’s even more dangerous with runners in scoring position.
When Ohtani is at his best, the Dodgers are seemingly always going to be on base doing their silly arm-wave thing, and I think that’s their recipe for success against the Yankees. A drop-off in production from Ohtani will put Los Angeles in a much tighter spot to win.
5. Who’s going to win the World Series? Who’ll be MVP?
Thosar: The Yankees, and Juan Soto. It’s not hard to imagine the World Series ending with Soto carrying the Yankees to a title in his first, and potentially only, season in New York. Remember that dramatic, theatrical seven-pitch at-bat he had against the Guardians‘ Hunter Gaddis in Game 5 of the ALCS that sent the Yankees to the Fall Classic? I’m expecting Soto to replicate that confidence and plate approach every single time he’s batting in the World Series. When the stakes are highest, Soto’s determination only seems to go up, too.
Kavner: I’ll take the Dodgers. There’s always the potential their starting pitching dooms them, but it hasn’t happened yet. I think Roberts has done a terrific job deploying his relievers at the right time and keeping his most trusted leverage arms as rested as possible, given the unfavorable circumstances. If they can get at least one lengthy starting pitching performance, that might be enough considering the way their offense is overwhelming opponents right now. They’re hitting in the clutch in a way they hadn’t in recent Octobers, and there seems to be a belief with this group that differs from previous iterations.
Ohtani went to the Dodgers for this opportunity, and all year he has delivered memorable performances in the biggest moments. He hit a walk-off grand slam to get to 40/40, had arguably the greatest single-game performance ever to get to 50/50, and now has hits in 18 of his past 23 at-bats with runners in scoring position. I think he leaves us with something special as World Series MVP, conjuring memories of his WBC performance (even if it’s only with the bat this time).
Bonus: Which stadium offers more of a home-field advantage?
Kavner: This one’s tough for me to answer, having not been to Yankee Stadium before, but it’s worth noting how many veteran Dodgers players have made it a point to reference the atmosphere of the stadium on this run in particular. Sure, there was an embarrassing night in the Padres series. But the players can feel the desire of the fans, who weren’t able to celebrate the 2020 championship with a parade. “If there’s something that this crowd is, it’s hungry,” Kiké Hernández said.
During the deciding Game 5 of the NLDS, Max Muncy said he thought the home crowd matched or exceeded the intensity at Petco Park, which is saying something. “We kept coming back into the dugout saying, ‘Hey, look at these guys out there,” Muncy said. “The fans were going nuts. The stadium was shaking.” The Dodgers routinely lead the majors in attendance, this year included. With a capacity to hold 56,000, multiple opposing players have noted how Dodger Stadium feels like the fans are on top of you. I do think it makes a difference that the Dodgers get an extra game at home, where they were 52-29 this year.
Thosar: Yankee Stadium. The Bronx crowd’s raucous energy will be unmatched and could be quite intimidating for some Dodgers pitchers. Funnily enough, Judge and Stanton are both from California and will have a ton of family at Chavez Ravine in the World Series, so I think they’ll feel extra comfortable there and primed to deliver in front of their loved ones.
Deesha Thosar is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. She previously covered the Mets as a beat reporter for the New York Daily News. The daughter of Indian immigrants, Deesha grew up on Long Island and now lives in Queens. Follow her on Twitter at @DeeshaThosar.
Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.
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